Energy Market Update – 13 August 2025
Gas and power were steady to slightly firmer this morning, with tight wind forecasts and French nuclear constraints offset by improving Norwegian flows and stable LNG send-out.
Natural gas traded in a narrow range. The UK NBP day-ahead settled at 79.50p/therm, while the Dutch TTF front-month hovered near €32.7–€33/MWh. Near-curve UK contracts edged up in early trading, with September around 80p/therm and Winter-25 near 88p–89p. Fundamentals were broadly comfortable: UK system demand eased to about 146 mcm/day as linepack rebuilt, and Norwegian receipts recovered with Langeled near 60 mcm/day and FLAGS around 14 mcm/day. LNG nominations ticked higher to roughly 10 mcm/day as Dragon resumed send-out alongside South Hook and boil-off at Isle of Grain. Offsetting this, ongoing Norwegian compressor issues and additional maintenance kept the market cautious, while European storage continued to build around the 70% mark. Cooling demand persisted across the Continent, keeping gas-for-power forecasts relatively firm today before easing over the weekend.
UK power prices followed gas higher on the prompt. Day-ahead baseload settled at £90.00/MWh, with September near £76.5/MWh and Q4-25 around £80.7/MWh. Lower wind output is boosting gas-fired generation requirements in the short term, while a run of UK nuclear outages limits baseload availability. Across Europe, high temperatures tightened conditions by lifting cooling demand and restricting some French nuclear output, reinforcing reliance on thermal plant and imports. Interconnectors to and from Great Britain continued to balance the system, with steady inflows from France and the Netherlands.
Other commodities were softer to mixed. Brent crude slipped to $66.12/bbl on ongoing macro headwinds and ample supply. European coal eased to $107.18/tonne. Carbon prices drifted lower, with EUAs at €71.50/tonne and the UK ETS at £51.72/tonne. In global gas, Asian LNG remained range-bound as tepid demand weighed on spot values, though a steady slate of US and West African cargoes into Northwest Europe is helping to underpin regional supply.