Energy Market Update – 11 August 2025
Gas and power were mixed in a quiet session. Gas steadied on firm supply and storage progress, while power was pulled lower by strong wind before rebounding on weaker renewables forecasts and French nuclear risks.
European gas settled near recent lows as healthy supply outpaced demand. UK NBP day-ahead closed at 77.25p/therm, with September at 79.53p and Winter-25 at 88.00p. Dutch TTF front-month traded around €32.5/MWh this morning. UK system demand eased to about 149 mcm/day, supported by UKCS output near 86 mcm/day. Norwegian nominations into the UK dipped by roughly 10 mcm/day after a compressor failure at Ormen Lange; Langeled flows were near 60 mcm/day with FLAGS/Vesterled around 14 mcm/day. LNG send-out remained modest at ~8 mcm/day (South Hook ~5 mcm/day; Isle of Grain on boil-off; Dragon inactive), while several cargoes are due into Northwest Europe this week. EU storage continues to build, with country levels ranging from the mid-40s to above 90%; Germany’s Rehden site auctioned a further 2.8 TWh of capacity, keeping storage policy in focus. Geopolitically, markets watched preparations for the Alaska talks involving the US and Russia, which could alter the medium-term risk premium.
UK power fell sharply on the prompt, then stabilised on expectations of lower wind. Day-ahead baseload settled at £37.79/MWh, reflecting elevated renewable output and subdued demand. Forward prices edged up in early trading as forecasts pointed to reduced wind and continued low nuclear availability; September traded near £77/MWh, with Q4-25 around £81/MWh and Winter-25 near £83/MWh. Interconnector imports from France, Belgium and the Netherlands continued to balance the system. Persistent French heat has raised river temperature constraints for nuclear cooling, and operators announced temporary curtailments totalling several gigawatts, increasing the region’s reliance on gas-fired generation if conditions persist.
Elsewhere in the complex, Brent crude hovered near $66.6/bbl after OPEC+ confirmed another production increase for September, adding to a softer macro tone. EU carbon firmed, with EUA Dec-25 around €73/t, while UK ETS Dec-25 traded close to £52/t. Coal eased, with API2 Cal-26 near $109/t. Global gas benchmarks were steady-to-softer: JKM around $11.5/MMBtu, TTF spot near $10.8/MMBtu, and Henry Hub near $3/MMBtu. Currency moves were limited, with sterling little changed against the euro and dollar.