Energy Market Update – 08 August 2025
Markets drifted lower overall, with gas and power pressured by firm Norwegian supply and steady LNG, though geopolitics and an expected dip in wind output kept risk premia in play.
UK natural gas eased across the near curve. NBP day-ahead settled at 77.75p/therm, while September traded near 81p/therm and Winter-25 around 89.5p/therm. Continental hubs were broadly softer, with TTF spot near €31.5/MWh. Supply remained comfortable: Norwegian exit nominations hit a new high for the year and UK receipts were stable around the mid-80s mcm/day via Langeled, offsetting a small dip on FLAGS/Vesterled. UK system demand slipped to roughly 149 mcm/day, linepack built, and LNG send-out hovered near 9 mcm/day (South Hook the main contributor). Gas-for-power demand is set to rise into the weekend as wind output falls below seasonal norms, but aggregate fundamentals remain benign with EU storage close to 70% and further LNG cargoes scheduled across Northwest Europe. The market also watched the US ceasefire deadline for Russia, with talk of secondary oil tariffs adding a modest geopolitical risk premium.
UK power tracked gas, but prompt prices rebounded from mid-week lows. Day-ahead baseload cleared at £58.64/MWh and day-ahead peak at £40.57/MWh. Forward baseload was little changed: September around £78/MWh, Q4-25 near £82/MWh and Winter-25 just under £84/MWh. Lower expected wind and warmer weather are lifting short-term gas-fired generation requirements, while nuclear availability remains constrained by extended outages at several units. Interconnector flows from France, Belgium and the Netherlands provided consistent support through the week.
Elsewhere, crude slipped and coal softened while carbon ticked higher. Brent front-month traded around $66.4/bbl. API2 Cal-26 coal eased to about $109.7/tonne. EU carbon rose to roughly €71.8/tonne and UK ETS firmed to ~£51/tonne. In global gas, JKM M+1 held near $11.75/MMBtu, Henry Hub spot printed around $3.05/MMBtu, and sterling edged higher versus the euro.