Energy Market Update – 09 July 2025
Gas and power prices moved higher yesterday, supported by stronger demand expectations and minor supply disruptions, while coal and oil extended their recent gains amid ongoing trade uncertainty.
European natural gas prices rose to their highest levels in over a week, with the UK NBP day-ahead contract settling at 82.25p/therm and TTF at €85.81/MWh. These increases, up 2.7% and 3% respectively, came despite comfortable supply conditions and below-average temperatures across the continent. UK system demand rose to 153.28 mcm, up from 152.26 mcm the day prior, driven by higher domestic consumption forecasts and slightly warmer temperatures expected later in the week. LNG sendout remained stable at 9 mcm/day, with no new deliveries expected until 15 July. A minor unplanned outage at the St Fergus NSMP terminal added marginal bullish pressure, while Norwegian flows held steady with exit nominations at 324.1 mcm/day. Storage levels in the UK were mixed, with South Hook 82% full and Rough at 9%, contributing to moderate injection activity. The EU Parliament’s approval of a more flexible approach to meeting the 90% storage target also helped steady sentiment.
UK power prices also advanced, with the day-ahead baseload rising to £84.27/MWh and the August-25 contract at £74.20/MWh. The front-season Winter 2025 contract reached £84.50/MWh, while Q4-25 traded at £83.40/MWh. The gains were partly underpinned by higher gas prices, although renewable generation forecasts suggest easing demand for thermal output into the weekend. Wind and solar generation are expected to increase from 6,500 MWh on 10 July to nearly 9,500 MWh by 14 July. Nuclear availability also improved, with over 1GW returning from maintenance, helping to offset volatility in fossil generation. Interconnector imports remained stable, with flows from Belgium and the Netherlands continuing to support the UK grid. Meanwhile, day-ahead power prices on the continent showed regional divergence, with Italian contracts gaining over 1%, while German and French prices rose by around 0.5%, reflecting localised demand and generation patterns.
Brent crude rose by 0.57% to $70.15/bbl, while coal markets continued to firm, with the ARA CIF Cal-2026 contract gaining $1.60 to settle at $112.16/tonne. The upward momentum in coal is supported by robust Asian demand and limited export flexibility due to weather constraints in some producing regions. Meanwhile, European carbon prices eased, with EUA December 2025 contracts falling to €70.42/tonne, down €0.78, and the UK ETS declining by £0.33 to £47.37/tonne. The retreat reflects muted industrial activity and cautious sentiment ahead of expected EU policy announcements. LNG arrivals into Northwest Europe continued at pace, with multiple large US-sourced shipments arriving at Zeebrugge, Eemshaven, and Wilhelmshaven, while deliveries from Russia and Qatar are also scheduled in the coming days, ensuring well-supplied conditions across major terminals.