Energy Market Update – 08 July 2025
Energy prices edged slightly higher across gas and power markets, with geopolitical tensions surrounding US tariffs and weather-driven demand shifts continuing to shape market sentiment.
Natural gas prices at the UK NBP and Dutch TTF hubs remained within a modest upward trend, supported by the build-up to the 1 August US tariff deadline. President Trump’s renewed pressure on non-compliant trade partners has raised concerns over future LNG demand in Asia, particularly as the recent European heatwave subsides and cooling needs begin to decline. At the same time, ongoing but relatively light maintenance on Norwegian gas infrastructure is curbing available capacity by around 15 mcm/day, limiting the potential for downward price movement. Langeled flows into the UK were steady at 55 mcm, though additional scheduled outages later in August may tighten supply conditions if extended. As of writing, the August-25 NBP contract is trading at 81.45p/therm, while the equivalent TTF contract stands at €34.15/MWh. Spot gas prices also moved higher, with the NBP spot closing at 78.86p/therm and TTF spot at €33.06/MWh.
Electricity markets showed similarly limited directional movement, with prices broadly following the gas curve. Warm conditions across Europe continue to boost cooling-related demand, although the recent increase in wind output has eased pressure on thermal generation. In the UK, wind generation rose by over 88% day-on-day, cutting reliance on CCGT output by nearly 39%. This helped cap gains in short-term baseload prices. The UK baseload August-25 contract was last seen at £73.25/MWh, while the front-quarter contract (Q4-25) traded at £82.72/MWh. Despite the recent OPEC production hike, oil demand indicators remain firm, and expectations of another increase later in the summer are growing, contributing to market resilience. Meanwhile, daily traded power prices in Germany and the Netherlands held above €89/MWh on Monday, supported by low renewable generation forecasts relative to seasonal norms later in the week.
In other commodities, Brent crude prices rose to $69.58/bbl, marking a 2.91% daily gain, while WTI crude reached $67.93/bbl. These moves suggest a continued bullish outlook despite ongoing trade uncertainty. European carbon prices, however, edged down slightly, with the EUA December 2026 contract closing at €73.03/tonne. Market participants cite mixed industrial demand signals and policy uncertainty as key factors. Coal prices slipped modestly, with ARA CIF Cal-2026 contracts falling 1.2% to $110.56/tonne. LNG flows into Europe remain dominated by US exports, which accounted for 93 cargoes over the past 12 months. Upcoming deliveries this week include several large volumes into terminals such as Zeebrugge, Dunkirk, and Eemshaven, helping to maintain robust storage levels across Europe, with aggregate EU gas storage currently nearing 74% full.