Energy Market Update – 10 July 2025
Energy prices continued to rise on Wednesday, led by stronger demand signals from expected heatwaves and tightening LNG schedules, while oil and coal gained amid ongoing global trade tensions.
Gas prices across Europe posted modest gains as forecasts pointed to hotter-than-average weather for much of July, raising demand expectations. The UK NBP day-ahead contract settled at 82.30p/therm, up 0.05p, while TTF closed at €86.30/MWh. The front-month NBP contract climbed to 82.03p/therm, supported by temperature forecasts of up to 32°C in the UK and 19°C minimums across the coming fortnight. Gas-for-power demand on the day-ahead was forecast at 40 mcm/day, down from 47 mcm/day previously, due to improved renewables output and the return of 1GW nuclear capacity, including Hartlepool 2 on 14 July and Torness later in the month. Storage sentiment was impacted by news that Germany’s Rehden facility could only reach 45% capacity, a limitation that raised concern over winter preparedness. UK system demand dipped to 151.91 mcm from 156.20 mcm, and Norwegian flows were slightly reduced due to ongoing maintenance at the Troll field, cutting 14.8 mcm/day of output. Meanwhile, LNG sendout remained stable at 9 mcm/day with no fresh cargoes due before 15 July.
UK power prices mirrored gas market trends, with the day-ahead baseload rising to £84.70/MWh. The August-25 baseload contract slipped slightly to £74.00/MWh, while Q4-25 edged lower to £83.24/MWh. Power fundamentals reflected falling solar generation, which dropped by 18% day-on-day, contributing to upward price pressure. Wind and solar generation forecasts for 14 July project output close to seasonal norms, helping to balance CCGT requirements. Nuclear availability is increasing, with additional units scheduled to return by the end of the month. Interconnector imports remained robust, especially via the BritNed and Nemo links from the Netherlands and Belgium respectively. On the continent, French Q4-25 power rose €1.50/MWh to €75.65, with other markets following the bullish gas trajectory.
In broader commodities, Brent crude edged up to $70.19/bbl, while coal prices strengthened further. The ARA CIF Cal-2026 contract rose to $113.81/tonne, marking a $1.65 gain day-on-day. The bullish move in coal is linked to strong Asian demand and delayed shipments from major exporters. Meanwhile, carbon markets softened slightly. The EUA December 2025 contract slipped by €0.03 to €70.39/tonne, and the UK ETS dropped by £0.81 to £46.56/tonne, amid low industrial activity and mixed policy signals from Brussels. Geopolitical risk remains elevated, with President Trump’s latest comments targeting Brazil, threatening 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods. The development adds to existing global trade concerns and could impact supply chains linked to US LNG exports.