Energy Market Report - 04 September 2026
UK and European energy markets softened as a warmer weather outlook and a modest easing of geopolitical risk allowed traders to take back some of the premium built up earlier in the week. Prompt power fell furthest, undercut by strong wind and recovering nuclear output, while the forward curve gave up only a fraction of its recent gains.
Natural Gas
Gas eased on weather rather than on any change in the underlying supply position. NBP day-ahead settled 5.10 p/therm lower at 175.50 p/therm, down roughly 2.6 per cent, with October 26 down 4.16 p/therm at 177.99 p/therm and Winter 26 down 4.02 p/therm at 178.45 p/therm, while TTF day-ahead fell €2.40/MWh to €70.95/MWh. The correction recovered only about a quarter of the previous two sessions' gains, and contracts further out barely moved, with Summer 28 down just 1.36 p/therm, confirming that the adjustment was concentrated in the winter risk premium. European storage stood at roughly 65.6 per cent full, still well below recent years, though a European Commission statement that it sees no immediate risk to supply security appears to have taken some heat out of prompt pricing. Norwegian nominations to Europe ran around 277.9 mcm/day with flows to the UK rising, while Kollsnes continued to operate with a 6 mcm/day curtailment of uncertain duration and higher losses at Troll were largely offset by increased output from Gullfaks. In the UK, Barrow North returned to service.
Electricity
Prompt power fell sharply for a third consecutive session, with day-ahead baseload settling at £94.88/MWh, a further £19.26/MWh lower, as wind averaged 11.1 GW from Monday to Thursday against 8.0 GW the previous week and nuclear output continued recovering, up roughly 37 per cent on the same point last month. Forward contracts eased more modestly, with Winter 26 baseload down £2.23 at £145.05/MWh, October baseload dropping to just below £140/MWh and Calendar 2027 trading around £110/MWh. The intraday shape was the most one-sided of the week: after a firm overnight period near £178/MWh, prices collapsed from mid-morning and never recovered, printing negative values across several periods with the system long by as much as 1,101 MWh, and producing no evening peak at all against peaks above £200/MWh on each of the three preceding days. German wind also strengthened, easing near-term supply concerns on the Continent.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 was little changed, down $0.11 at $95.52/bbl, but remained on track for its strongest weekly gain since mid-July as US-Iran tensions continued to support concerns over Middle East supply disruption. API2 coal for 2027 eased $0.63 to $132.56/tonne. Carbon retreated on both schemes, with EUA Dec 26 down €0.54 at €83.53/tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 down £0.22 at £59.49/tonne, holding the UKA discount to the European contract at roughly £12.39/tonne. Sterling was at its weakest of the week against the euro at 1.1620, while firming to 1.3521 against the dollar.