Energy Market Report - 07 September 2026
An exchange of strikes on shipping between US and Iranian forces over the weekend has pushed energy markets sharply higher, with crude approaching $98/bbl and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at its slowest since May. UK gas closed last week firmer on tightening Norwegian supply and has gapped higher again this morning, while prompt power moved in the opposite direction on record seasonal wind output.
Natural Gas
Gas firmed into Friday's close and has extended those gains sharply. NBP day-ahead settled 3.50 p/therm higher at 179.00 p/therm with Winter 26 up 0.95 p/therm at 179.40 p/therm, and both are indicated several pence higher this morning at 182.99 p/therm and 183.87 p/therm respectively. Norwegian supply is the immediate constraint: Troll output falls by 9.9 mcm/day between 5 and 8 September on an unplanned process issue, a further 13 mcm/day restriction at Kollsnes begins tomorrow taking total unavailability there to 29 mcm/day, and that sits on top of 68 mcm/day of wider planned works, though exit nominations have recovered to 280.9 mcm/day and UK deliveries have improved with the return of Oseberg. EU storage of roughly 66 per cent remains well behind seasonal norms, with Germany at a historic low of 53 per cent, and a potential strike at Dunkirk LNG from 15 September adds prompt risk. UK LNG sendout is steady at 8 mcm/day with one US cargo expected next week. Winter 26 has now risen just over 39 per cent since 5 August and trades at more than double its level a year ago.
Electricity
Prompt and forward power continue to diverge. Day-ahead baseload settled at £72.76/MWh, the lowest of the period, after wind generation reached 16.9 GW on Friday, its highest since 19 May, supplying 50.6 per cent of the GB power mix against just 12.4 per cent from gas. Forward contracts were steady to firmer, with Winter 26 baseload up £0.44 at £145.49/MWh and Q1-27 up £1.49 at £145.65/MWh. Over the weekend the system swung by more than £250/MWh in a single day, running deeply negative through Sunday morning to a low of minus £30.00/MWh before ramping into a £222.50/MWh evening peak, while this morning has been firm and short with repeated prints close to £200/MWh against day demand of 28,570 MW. The 1.4 GW North Sea Link interconnector from Norway has returned, helping offset an ongoing unit outage at Pembroke CCGT, while French nuclear availability remains under pressure with the Chooz outage extended to 18 September and Spain's Asco-1 still offline. In Germany, a third substation sabotage incident was recorded at Dormagen following an earlier 4.2 GW trip, and the 2027 power premium over 2028 sits near record highs above €26/MWh.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 settled $0.76 higher at $96.28/bbl on Friday and has risen toward $97.70/bbl this morning after US aircraft and drones disabled two Iranian oil tankers and destroyed a third in retaliation for missile fire at a US carrier and destroyer, with Tehran warning of more severe reprisals. API2 coal for 2027 firmed $1.88 to $134.46/tonne, its highest of the period. Carbon rose on both schemes, with EUA Dec 26 up €0.65 at €84.18/tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 up £0.24 at £59.73/tonne, leaving UKAs at roughly a £12.58/tonne discount to the European contract, the widest of the week and up from around £11.53/tonne on 28 August. Sterling was steady at 1.1642 against the euro and 1.3521 against the dollar.