Energy Market Report - 03 September 2026
Unplanned outages at two major Norwegian gas fields, combined with continued escalation between US and Iranian forces, drove UK gas to its highest level since January 2023 in a second consecutive session of gains. Power split sharply between a forward curve pricing winter scarcity and a prompt undercut by strong wind, while carbon added its own support to Continental markets.
Natural Gas
The move was supply-led, which gave it more durability than a purely geopolitical rally. Kollsnes lost 5 mcm/day of capacity, leaving 111 mcm/day available, while Troll was curtailed by 6.7 mcm/day to 103.5 mcm/day until 6 September, dragging total Norwegian exit flows down to 276.9 mcm/day with deliveries to the UK falling day on day. NBP day-ahead settled 2.60 p/therm higher at 180.60 p/therm and Winter 26 gained 4.04 p/therm to 182.47 p/therm, with the front-month touching 184 p/therm intraday, its highest since January 2023. Contracts further out rose proportionally more, with Summer 27 up 4.49 p/therm and Winter 27 up 4.87 p/therm, indicating a structural repricing rather than a prompt reaction. European storage of roughly 65 per cent at the end of August remains well below the same point in 2025, and JKM at its highest level since the first quarter of 2023 continues to divert flexible LNG cargoes toward Asia. Germany's storage association has called on its government to intervene with short-term measures to encourage injections.
Electricity
The forward curve and the prompt moved in opposite directions. Winter 26 baseload rose £3.64 to £147.28/MWh with peak Winter 26 up £4.28 at £167.91/MWh, while day-ahead baseload settled at £114.14/MWh, roughly £39.56/MWh below the previous session, as strong wind pushed CCGTs out of the stack. Intraday the market swung by more than £231/MWh, running to £184/MWh in the morning, falling to minus £16.10/MWh across the early afternoon with the system long by over 1,015 MWh, then recovering to a £214.90/MWh evening peak. In Germany several contracts reached all-time highs, with Cal-27 at a three-year high and Cal-28 through Cal-30 setting records, helped by EU allowances rising €1.30/tonne, while 4.2 GW of capacity in North Rhine went offline after an incident the grid operator attributed to an external factor. The French front-month rose 16.47 per cent week on week to €134.81/MWh as drought and hydro shortfall continue to bite.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 firmed $0.98 to $95.63/bbl, holding near three-month highs after reports of multiple tankers being struck in the Persian Gulf and confirmation that an Iranian attack on the Saudi tanker Sidr killed two Filipino sailors. API2 coal for 2027 eased $1.04 to $133.19/tonne after the previous session's surge. Carbon was the day's strongest performer, with EUA Dec 26 up €0.73 at €84.07/tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 up £0.50 at £59.71/tonne, leaving UKAs at around a £12.48/tonne discount to the European contract on prevailing exchange rates. Asian spot LNG held at three-year highs. Sterling weakened to 1.1646 against the euro and 1.3484 against the dollar, marginally raising the sterling cost of imported fuel.