Energy Market Report - 03 July 2026
British and European energy markets ended Thursday firmer across the near curve, with gas, power and coal all gaining while carbon was mixed and oil steadied after a sharp weekly fall. The US-Iran ceasefire is holding and draining some geopolitical premium from the complex, but Norwegian maintenance and a slow European storage rebuild are keeping the underlying tone supported.
Natural Gas
UK gas prices pushed higher again yesterday as supply-side tightness outweighed a comfortable domestic balance. NBP day-ahead settled at 103.95p/therm, up 2.25p/therm on the day, with the August front month at 104.51p/therm and Win-26 at 108.80p/therm; TTF front-month contracts settled around €44/MWh, up close to three per cent. Gassco has recorded exit nominations of 327.3 mcm/day with annual maintenance starting at Dvalin today, and Norwegian receipts into the UK are running near 67 mcm/day. EU storage stands at roughly 49 per cent full - about ten percentage points below last year - while LNG cargoes continue to be pulled towards Asia and Egypt, leaving European imports around 15 per cent lower month on month. This morning the NBP front month is indicated near 105p/therm, with the UK system opening long and demand easing towards 141 mcm/day.
Electricity
UK day-ahead baseload settled at £89.97/MWh for Friday delivery, up sharply from £54.25/MWh, as Thursday's exceptional wind conditions fall out of the delivery window. Wind averaged 15.7GW on Thursday, some 46.8 per cent of the generation mix and its strongest showing since mid-May, cutting gas-for-power demand by almost two thirds; forecasts now show wind slipping below seasonal norms from around 6 July through at least mid-month, lifting expected CCGT requirements. Along the curve, Win-26 baseload settled at £98.21/MWh, up around 1.3 per cent, supported by firmer gas and a UK nuclear fleet carrying outages at Heysham, Sizewell B and Hartlepool, with further planned work at Torness and Hartlepool from late July. On the Continent, prompt prices held broadly steady as strong renewables and French nuclear output recovering towards 50GW offset heat-driven cooling demand.
Other Commodities
Brent settled at $71.80/bbl, marginally higher on the day but still around 4.6 per cent lower on the week, and has ticked up this morning as trading thins into the US Independence Day weekend; WTI closed at $68.69/bbl. Coal firmed alongside gas, with ARA Cal-27 settling at $110.84/tonne, nearly two per cent higher on the week. Carbon diverged, with the Dec-26 EUA easing €0.09 to €79.45/tonne while the Dec-26 UK allowance rose £0.29 to £56.24/tonne, extending the UK scheme's recent outperformance. In global gas, JKM at $16.29/MMBtu against TTF near $14.71/MMBtu continues to keep flexible Atlantic cargoes pointed east, while Henry Hub was little changed at $3.34/MMBtu.