Energy Market Report - 06 July 2026
Wholesale energy markets ended last week firmly higher as stalled diplomacy between the US and Iran rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz, while a fresh European heatwave lifted demand across the complex. Gas led the move, power and carbon followed, and crude was comparatively steady as tanker traffic through the strait continued.
Natural Gas
Gas closed the week strongly on the combination of Middle East risk, heat-driven power burn and slowing storage injections. NBP day-ahead settled at 107.00 p/therm on Friday, up 3.05 on the day, with front-month around 3 per cent higher at 107.64 p/therm - roughly 10 per cent up on the week - and Winter 26 at 110.97 p/therm, while TTF front-month settled at 45.10 €/MWh. Supply is steady, with Norwegian exit nominations reported by Gassco at 328.8 mcm/day, UK-bound flows around 68 mcm/day, Oseberg the only field under maintenance, and LNG sendout near 8 mcm/day ahead of the next cargo at Milford Haven on 16 July. European storage reached 50 per cent over the weekend but remains around ten percentage points below last year, and with Q4-26 priced above Q1-27 the curve continues to discourage injections. The prompt opened slightly softer on Monday morning with the system around 14 mcm/day long, though gas-for-power demand is expected to rise as wind speeds fade through the week.
Electricity
UK day-ahead baseload settled at 52.57 £/MWh on Friday, sharply lower, with the peak contract at just 13.29 £/MWh - below baseload - as deep solar output met soft weekend demand and wind halved from Thursday's surge. Imports became the largest source of GB supply at 24.8 per cent of the mix, just ahead of wind at 24.4 per cent, with CCGT contributing only 13.1 per cent. The forward curve was firmer, with August baseload settling at 96.58 £/MWh, up around 8.5 per cent on the week, and Winter 26 at 99.60 £/MWh. Day-ahead indications recovered to 93 to 99 £/MWh on Monday as wind is forecast to fall well below normal by the weekend and cooling demand builds, while reported cooling restrictions across parts of the French nuclear fleet from Tuesday and thin UK nuclear availability - several units remain offline, with more planned outages from late July - keep upside risk in focus.
Other Commodities
Brent settled at 72.12 $/bbl on Friday, little changed on the week, and steadied on Monday after OPEC+ reportedly agreed to raise output targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, a fifth consecutive monthly increase; WTI closed at 68.82 $/bbl. Coal firmed with the wider complex, ARA Cal-27 settling at 112.33 $/tonne, up around 5 per cent on the week. In carbon, the Dec-26 EUA settled at 80.60 €/tonne, up €1.15 on the day, and was indicated near 81 €/tonne on Monday morning as heat-driven power demand supported buying, while the Dec-26 UK ETS contract edged up to 56.33 £/tonne. Global gas benchmarks were steady, with JKM flat at 16.29 $/MMBtu - holding a premium to TTF at around 15 $/MMBtu that supports eastward cargo pull - and Henry Hub near 3.34 $/MMBtu.