Energy Market Report - 02 July 2026
Wholesale energy markets fell broadly on Wednesday as surging wind forecasts and easing tensions between the US and Iran stripped risk premium out of gas, power, carbon and oil. Prices have recovered this morning after the start of annual maintenance in Norway tightened the supply picture.
Natural Gas
The NBP day-ahead contract settled at 101.70 p/therm on Wednesday, down 4.10 p/therm, with the August front-month at 101.69 p/therm and TTF August at €42.78/MWh, as forecasts pointed to German wind output above 20 GW and UK wind near 14.5 GW today, cutting gas-for-power demand. This morning the front-month has recovered to around 104 p/therm after Gassco reported exit nominations of 331.4 mcm/day, reflecting maintenance at Oseberg that removes around 12 mcm/day until 8 July; flows to the UK have fallen to around 70 mcm/day, with Langeled and FLAGS nominated lower, although the system opened around 4 mcm/day long and LNG sendout is steady at 8 mcm/day. Support further out is coming from storage, with EU sites 48.9 per cent full at the end of June - around ten percentage points below last year - and from reports that less than half of US LNG exports went to Europe for the first time in two years as Asian buyers and record Egyptian imports pull cargoes away. US-Iran talks in Qatar concluded on Wednesday with little sign of progress, and with the next round not expected until after the weekend, some geopolitical premium remains in the market.
Electricity
UK day-ahead baseload for Thursday delivery settled at £54.25/MWh, down nearly £50 on the day, with the peak contract at just £26.84/MWh as strong wind and midday solar depressed daytime prices; system prices briefly turned negative this morning. Further out, Winter 26 baseload settled at £96.96/MWh and Summer 27 at £75.39/MWh, with both moving higher alongside gas in thin early trade today. CCGT remains the largest source in the GB generation mix with imports second, reflecting reduced nuclear availability at Heysham and Hartlepool, although Sizewell B is due back in mid July, restoring around 1.2 GW. On the Continent, French nuclear availability has recovered to around 44 GW after river-temperature curtailments and is forecast to approach 50 GW by 8 July, weighing on near-term prices.
Other Commodities
Brent settled at $71.57/bbl, its lowest since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover and progress in negotiations raised the prospect of additional Iranian exports; WTI closed at $68.58/bbl. Coal was little changed, with ARA CIF Cal 27 at $110.23/tonne. In carbon, EUAs for December 2026 delivery fell €0.62 to €79.54/tonne and UK Allowances dropped £0.71 to £55.95/tonne, both tracking the weaker energy complex as strong renewables output trims compliance demand. Globally, JKM settled at $15.88/MMBtu, holding a premium over European hubs that continues to attract Atlantic cargoes, while Henry Hub was steady near $3.38/MMBtu.