Energy Market Report - 30 July 2026
A renewed exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran, together with a drone attack on LNG vessels at an Egyptian port, pushed the geopolitical risk premium straight back into European gas and oil prices on Wednesday after it had been stripped out at the start of the week. Gas and crude both rallied sharply, power split between an easing prompt and a firmer forward curve, and carbon was almost unchanged.
Natural Gas
Gas rose because political risk returned to a market that has no physical cushion to absorb it. UK day-ahead NBP settled 11.10p higher at 146.85 p/therm and the front-month gained 6.13p to 146.43 p/therm, while TTF day-ahead was assessed at €60.52/MWh, up €4.14. Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US air base in Jordan, the US struck dozens of Revolutionary Guard sites in response, and two LNG vessels were hit by a drone at Egypt's Damietta port. Against that, supply is holding up: Norwegian flows were steady at 326.9 mcm/day with 67.9 mcm/day heading to UK terminals, Gassco nominations are marginally higher this morning at 327.7 mcm/day, and UK LNG sendout has edged up to around 10 mcm/day. The pressure point is storage. EU inventories were 56.15 per cent full on 29 July at roughly 634 TWh, some 11 per cent below a year ago, weekly injections are slowing, and with the front-month at 146.43 p/therm against January 27 at 151.90 p/therm the curve is offering barely 5.5 p/therm to hold gas over the next five months, which does little to encourage refilling. There was one bearish development of substance: the first Qatari LNG cargo in almost three weeks transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning, though traffic through the strait remains very thin.
Electricity
UK power eased at the prompt and firmed along the curve. Day-ahead baseload settled £3.86 lower at £123.87/MWh and day-ahead peak fell £9.62 to £108.50/MWh, with peak below baseload because heavy midday solar output suppressed afternoon prices. Beneath the daily average the shape was volatile, with prices below £100/MWh in the morning when the system was long and a spike to £253.90/MWh in the evening peak as the system turned short. Forward contracts tracked gas up, August 26 baseload adding £5.24 to £122.44/MWh, Q4 26 rising to £126.51/MWh and Winter 26 to £124.00/MWh. Nuclear availability is the persistent constraint, with Heysham 2-7 off unplanned since 25 July, further losses at Hartlepool and Heysham 1, both Sizewell B units on planned outage, and Torness 2 due off for 18 days from 31 July. Wind is forecast to stay subdued into early August, lifting day-ahead gas-for-power demand by 5 mcm/day, while French nuclear output remains below seasonal norms, tightening continental margins and leaving the UK importing across the interconnectors.
Other Commodities
Crude led the complex higher, Brent front-month settling at $90.74/bbl, up almost 8 per cent, and WTI at $84.46/bbl, both recovering from Monday's slide when Washington paused strikes to allow room for diplomacy; even so, Brent remains around 3.5 per cent lower on the week. Coal firmed, with API2 ARA Cal 27 up $3.59 to $124.33/tonne. Carbon was the outlier, barely moving in either scheme: EUA Dec 26 gained €0.29 to €82.02/tonne, still more than 5 per cent below last week, while UK ETS Dec 26 slipped £0.08 to £59.49/tonne, leaving UK allowances at a discount of roughly £10.75/tonne to their EU equivalent once converted at Wednesday's exchange rate. In global gas benchmarks, JKM edged up to $21.43/MMBtu, retaining a premium of a little over $1/MMBtu to European spot and keeping Atlantic cargo competition alive, while Henry Hub spot eased to $2.58/MMBtu. Sterling firmed 0.63 per cent against the dollar to $1.3369, a modest offset to higher dollar-priced fuel costs.