Energy Market Report - 29 July 2026
Wholesale energy markets extended their retreat from recent highs on 28 July as the pause in US-Iran hostilities continued to drain the risk premium built up over the past fortnight, though the pace of the decline slowed sharply and this morning has begun to reverse on reports of renewed military activity in the region. Gas and oil both fell, UK power moved higher on weaker wind, and carbon drifted with the complex.
Natural Gas
Prompt gas eased for a second session, supported lower by firm Norwegian supply and a mild temperature outlook rather than by any improvement in the underlying balance. NBP day-ahead settled at 135.75 p/therm and TTF day-ahead at €56.38/MWh, both around 3 per cent lower, while Norwegian exports held at 325.7 mcm/day with flows to the UK up roughly 4 per cent to 70.7 mcm/day. The fundamentals sit uneasily alongside the price action. Nominated LNG deliveries into Europe fell more than 40 per cent day-on-day to around 290 mcm/day, Continental LNG imports since the start of summer are approximately 15 per cent below 2025 levels, and EU storage was around 56 per cent full - more than 12 percentage points behind last year, with July injections running some 20 per cent slower. UK LNG sendout has dropped to just 1 mcm/day with a single cargo scheduled for South Hook on 4 August, leaving the system dependent on Norwegian pipe while exporting around 51 mcm/day into the Continent. Winter 26 settled at 140.19 p/therm, and this morning the whole curve is indicated higher.
Electricity
UK power rose while its fuel fell, a divergence driven entirely by the generation mix. Day-ahead baseload settled £6.37 higher at £127.73/MWh with wind forecast below seasonal norms for the coming week, while peak settled below baseload at £118.12/MWh as strong solar output suppressed daytime prices. The intraday shape was severe: system prices turned negative for three consecutive half-hours around midday, reaching -£10.00/MWh, before the evening stack ran between £167 and £179/MWh, peaking at £179.44/MWh. Nuclear availability is a persistent drag, with roughly 3.3 GW unavailable across Heysham, Hartlepool and both Sizewell B units, and a further 640 MW leaving the system at Torness from 31 July. Forward power fell further than gas, with August baseload down £5.23 to £117.20/MWh and Winter 26 easing to £119.41/MWh, compressing generation margins. Interconnectors continued to import, tying UK prices to a Continental market wrestling with the same storage deficit.
Other Commodities
Crude bore the brunt of the de-escalation trade, with Brent M+1 settling $4.27 lower at $84.09/bbl in a third consecutive losing session, before rebounding this morning as fresh military activity in the Middle East revived supply concerns. Coal API2 ARA Cal-27 eased $2.01 to $120.74/tonne. In carbon, EUAs for December 2026 settled at €81.73/tonne and UK ETS December 2026 at £59.57/tonne, leaving the UK allowance at roughly a €12/tonne discount to its European equivalent, marginally narrower on the day and notably stable through recent volatility. Global gas benchmarks were mixed, with JKM M+1 slipping to $21.32/MMBtu and Henry Hub spot firming to $2.65/MMBtu, a spread that leaves Atlantic arbitrage economics comfortably open even as physical cargo availability into Europe tightens. Sterling was flat at 1.1689 against the euro and 1.3285 against the dollar.