Energy Market Update - 30 December 2025
Prices firmed as colder revisions and thin wind tightened the prompt, while curves moved within range. Storage cushions remain comfortable and Norwegian flows are steady. LNG schedules add support.
Near-curve gas opened higher after a fresh downgrade to temperatures. UK conditions are set to average about 3.6°C below seasonal norms, lifting LDZ demand and gas-for-power burn when wind dips. System balances remain orderly, helped by stable Norwegian pipeline nominations and steady UKCS receipts. LNG supply is supportive, with multiple Atlantic cargoes signalled for North West Europe and at least one UK arrival in the near term, which should cap any sharp prompt spikes unless offshore issues re-emerge. Interconnector flows continue to adjust to relative hub spreads with IUK maintenance limiting flexibility but BBL offering cover. Overall, the market is weather-led and reactive intraday, though the broader balance still looks comfortable into early January.
UK Day-Ahead baseload eased from intraday highs as wind picked up late in the session, yet remained elevated versus last week given tighter renewable hours through the trading window. The Week-Ahead baseload contract rose £11.55/MWh to £90.48/MWh as colder weather and weaker wind early in the week tightened margins. On the curve, November and winter strips tracked gas, with limited independent direction from carbon. Nuclear availability is expected to improve modestly into January, which should temper peaks when wind is stronger, but the stack remains highly wind-led with wide hourly ranges when output falls.
Brent was little changed, with supply headlines offset by soft demand signals. Coal held near recent averages, offering no fresh impulse to power. Carbon remained firm into the year-end auction pause despite brief bouts of profit-taking, keeping thermal costs elevated and lending a mild floor to forward power. Global LNG markers were steady, with record US feedgas underpinning Atlantic supply and keeping European cargo values close to hub parity.