Energy Market Update - 29 December 2025
Prices firmed in thin trade as colder forecasts, low wind and geopolitical noise lifted near-curve gas and power. Moves were modest and the broader range held.
NBP day-ahead opened firmer around 74 pence per therm as heating load increased and wind dipped. Continental balances stayed comfortable with Norwegian nominations near 352 mcm per day and only limited curtailment at Åsgard. European storage was about 64 per cent after the holiday withdrawals, providing a cushion despite the temperature dip. North-West Europe shows a dense slate of LNG arrivals this week, largely US-sourced, with UK send-out steady from South Hook and Dragon and additional cargoes due at Isle of Grain. The prompt remained sensitive to weather updates and any offshore advisories, but higher pipeline receipts and strong LNG kept the upside contained.
UK day-ahead baseload cleared near £72 per MWh, with peak blocks around £81 as lower wind through core hours tightened margins before a late recovery. Forward prices tracked gas. Q1-26 baseload added about £0.6 per MWh by the close, while Summer-26 edged up only slightly. Interconnector imports from France and the Netherlands added cover, and French nuclear availability is set to improve in early January, which should help temper tight spells when wind troughs. Domestic nuclear remains mixed with ongoing outages at Heysham and Torness, keeping CCGT dispatch responsive to renewable swings.
Brent held near 62 dollars per barrel as refined-product headlines offset weak macro signals. Coal API2 Cal-26 traded around 96 dollars per tonne. EUAs were firm in the high 80s euro per tonne, lending a floor to winter power despite fundamentals staying adequate. Sterling was broadly steady near 1.146 against the euro.