Energy Market Report - 29 April 2026
European gas and power markets traded firmer this morning, recovering from Tuesday's softer settlement as Middle East geopolitical risk reasserted itself across the wider commodity complex. Crude led the move with Brent above 111 $/bbl, while gas and power retraced higher in sympathy following bearish weather-driven losses the prior session.
Natural Gas
NBP front month indicated around 110.90 p/therm in early trade, up roughly 2.50 p/therm from Tuesday's settlement of 108.41 p/therm, with TTF May-26 near 44.60 €/MWh against a 43.59 €/MWh settlement. NBP Win-26 settled at 110.30 p/therm and Sum-27 at 85.31. Tuesday's losses reflected forecasts for above-seasonal UK temperatures into the weekend - around 5°C above norm - and stronger wind and solar generation into Wednesday delivery, with UK system demand around 146-151 mcm/d, some 41 mcm/d below seasonal normal. The latest 14-day model now turns bullish from 5 May, with demand expected above seasonal norms through at least 12 May, coinciding with a heavier Norwegian maintenance schedule. Aasta Hansteen output is cut by 5.6 mcm/d on process problems, with unplanned restrictions at Sleipner and Gullfaks. Norwegian exit nominations stand at 307.6 mcm/d, with flows to the UK at 51 mcm/d. LNG arrivals into NWE were around 277 mcm/d with multiple US cargoes scheduled into Continental terminals over the next 72 hours. UK aggregate storage sits at just 8 per cent ahead of injection season, with Rough at 0 per cent.
Electricity
UK baseload tracked gas higher this morning, with the front month indicated around 90.70 £/MWh against Tuesday's 88.76 £/MWh settlement, and Win-26 firming towards 97.50 £/MWh from 94.87 settled. The day-ahead baseload had settled sharply lower at 66.52 £/MWh - a 32.22 £/MWh fall on the day - on strong forecast wind and solar contribution into Wednesday. That cushion looks short-lived: gas-for-power demand on the day-ahead is expected to rise around 3 mcm/d as nuclear availability weakens, with Heysham 1 (175 MW unplanned) and Heysham 2 (115 MW unplanned) already curtailed and further planned Torness, Heysham and Sizewell B outages stacking up from 1 May. Wind forecasts hold above seasonal norms only until Friday before dropping sharply through next week, dovetailing with the gas demand signal from 5 May. Continental power moved similarly with German baseload front month near 76.55 £/MWh and French nuclear capacity broadly available in the 47-48 GW range.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 settled at 111.26 $/bbl on Tuesday, up 2.80 $/bbl on the day and almost 13 per cent on the week, with WTI at 99.93 $/bbl. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed under the US naval blockade and US-Iran negotiations have stalled, sustaining a substantial geopolitical premium. The UAE confirmed it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective 1 May after almost 60 years of membership; markets reacted calmly given that existing regional export constraints already account for much of the relevant tightness. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 settled at 118.13 $/t, with Cal-28 and Cal-29 at 115.41 and 114.74. Carbon firmed modestly: EUA Dec-26 at 75.11 €/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 at 51.72 £/tonne, both up around 0.37. JKM held at $16.48/MMBtu while Henry Hub May-26 was at $2.56/MMBtu, sustaining wide trans-basin spreads. FX was little changed with GBP/EUR at 1.1532 and GBP/USD at 1.3516.