Energy Market Report - 28 April 2026
European wholesale energy markets opened the week on a steadier footing after a five-day bull run lost momentum, with mild and windy conditions weighing on prompt gas and power even as crude continues to provide underlying support. Geopolitical risk remains the dominant cross-commodity driver, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade unresolved and US-Iran peace talks stalled.
Natural Gas
NBP and continental hubs traded in a tight range on Monday with the day-ahead easing as mild, windy conditions across Northwest Europe trimmed heating and gas-for-power demand. NBP day-ahead settled at 108.70 p/therm, down 1.55, while TTF day-ahead consolidated near €44.50/MWh, with PEG, THE and PSV moving in line. UK temperatures are forecast at roughly 5°C above seasonal norm for the rest of the week, before easing back. The UK system opened around 15 mcm/day long this morning with Langeled flows lifting to 39 mcm/day and total Norwegian exit nominations to the Continent at 310 mcm/day, although planned outages at Vesterled and a brief Easington Langeled curtailment in early May provide some near-term tightening risk. Total LNG sendout across UK terminals is nominated at 15 mcm/day, with only a single cargo expected at Isle of Grain over the next fortnight and April deliveries running three cargoes below last year. European storage stood at 31.47 per cent on 26 April with the injection pace lagging recent years and keeping seasonal contracts supported - NBP Win-26 settled at 112.55 p/therm with Sum-27 at 86.74 p/therm.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas lower on the prompt with the day-ahead baseload settling at £98.74/MWh, down £0.76, on a stronger renewables outlook into the back end of the week. The front-month UK May-26 baseload settled at £89.55/MWh ahead of expiry within the next 48 hours, with Jun-26 at £92.18/MWh and Win-26 at £95.78/MWh. Wind generation on Monday fell to just 9.2 per cent of the UK mix, prompting CCGT to lift to 26.7 per cent, but forecasts now point to materially stronger wind across the UK, Germany, Netherlands and France from later in the week. Continental power is running well below UK levels with Germany May-26 at €77.55/MWh and France May-26 at €21.80/MWh - the French contract sitting at a multi-year low on weak demand and strong nuclear availability. UK nuclear constraints persist with Heysham 1 and Heysham 2 still on extended unplanned outages and a heavy slate of planned maintenance at Torness, Sizewell B and further Heysham units due to begin in May, capping any sustained downside in baseload power on the curve.
Other Commodities
Crude continues to set the tone across the wider energy complex, with Brent settling at $108.23/bbl on Monday - up 2.75 per cent on the day and 13.35 per cent on the week - now sitting just below the post-Hormuz crisis closing peaks. European crude has appreciated 19.7 per cent since 17 April on the back of the unresolved Strait blockade and stalled US-Iran diplomacy. WTI followed to $96.37/bbl. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 was broadly flat on the day at $118.03/t but is up 8.47 per cent on the week as the wider complex has strengthened. Carbon was mixed, with EUA Dec-26 easing marginally to €74.74/t and UK ETS Dec-26 firming to £51.36/t, narrowing the cross-scheme spread. Asian JKM front-month traded near $16.55/MMBtu, retaining a substantial premium over TTF and continuing to support European LNG arrivals despite the slower UK pace. Sterling was stable at GBP/EUR 1.1550 and GBP/USD 1.3530.