Energy Market Report - 27 April 2026
Wholesale energy markets have opened the week firmer, with gas and power both extending Friday's gains as cooler weather forecasts and weaker wind output sharpen near-term demand against an already constrained supply backdrop. Geopolitical risk remains the dominant macro driver, with the cancellation of US-Iran talks and renewed vessel seizures around the Strait of Hormuz lifting the wider commodity complex.
Natural Gas
NBP firmed into the open with the front-month trading at around 112.78 p/therm this morning, building on Friday's settlement of 111.91 p/therm and pulling Winter-26 above 113 p/therm, while the equivalent TTF May-26 contract is quoted near 45.15 €/MWh, up around 1 €/MWh day on day. UK system demand opened at roughly 146 mcm/day, broadly balanced, but is set to rise toward 160 mcm/day as gas-for-power requirements increase to cover a sharp drop in wind generation - the German baseload wind factor is forecast to fall from around 27% on Friday to roughly 4% today. Norwegian total exit nominations stand at 308.2 mcm/day with maintenance ramping through the week, including continued Vesterled curtailments and an Easington Langeled outage from early May. LNG support is limited: only one UK cargo is scheduled in the next fortnight, arriving at the Isle of Grain on 30 April from Algeria, while Asian JKM remains firm at $16.55/MMBtu and European storage sits at roughly 31% full - a four-year low for April. Reports of Qatari export curtailments following regional drone attacks have added a further tightness signal to the curve.
Electricity
UK baseload firmed at the front month, with May-26 trading up around £91-92/MWh from a Friday settlement of £90.26/MWh, while the day-ahead settled lower at £99.50/MWh on Friday before edging back up into Monday's open. The drivers are coherent across the stack: wind output averaged just 5.6 GW across the UK last week, down from 10.5 GW the prior week, with further weakness expected today before a partial recovery later in the week. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with unplanned outages at Heysham 1-2 (175 MW impact) and Heysham 2-7 (115 MW) compounded by planned work at Heysham 1-1 and Torness, and a heavier outage stack scheduled from early May, including both Sizewell B reactors. The shortfall is being made up with CCGT, lifting the marginal cost of generation, while interconnector flows from France and the Netherlands remain supportive but cannot fully offset a tighter renewable picture across Northwest Europe. Continental forwards moved in step, with German Cal-27 baseload settling at €92.88/MWh.
Other Commodities
Brent crude has extended its rally toward $106.60/bbl this morning, building on Friday's settlement of $105.33/bbl and a 16.5% gain over the past week, with the move driven almost entirely by Strait of Hormuz risk after US-Iran talks were cancelled and fresh vessel seizures reported, including a US action against an Iranian oil shipment in the Indian Ocean. WTI is tracking lower at $94.40/bbl, with the Brent-WTI differential widening on the seaborne supply premium. Coal ARA CIF Cal-27 settled at $117.60/tonne, up 6.7% on the week, reflecting cross-commodity firmness rather than any thermal demand pull. Carbon was the notable laggard: EUA Dec-26 settled at €74.90 per tonne, broadly flat on the day and around 3% softer on the week, while UK ETS Dec-26 firmed sharply by £2.00 to £50.47 per tonne on the back of the UK government's confirmation that the carbon tax on power generation will be removed from April 2028 - a change expected to lift gas-fired output and could turn Britain into a net power exporter by late 2028. Sterling slipped slightly against the euro to 1.1520, with limited cross-currency impact on price formation.