Energy Market Report - 24 April 2026
European energy markets extended their rally on Thursday as the US-Iran conflict, now in its ninth week, continued to lift gas, power, oil, coal and carbon in tandem, with UK NBP closing higher for a fourth consecutive session. Weaker wind forecasts, constrained Norwegian pipeline flows and persistent LNG supply concerns reinforced the bullish tone across the complex.
Natural Gas
NBP day-ahead settled at 109.55 p/therm on Thursday, up 1.05 p/therm day on day, with May-26 front month closing at 110.89 p/therm and firming to around 112.75 p/therm this morning. TTF day-ahead was assessed at 43.95 €/MWh with front month at 44.50 €/MWh, broadly firmer this morning at around 45.15 €/MWh. Supply fundamentals have tightened, with aggregated Norwegian outages at Troll, Kollsnes and related assets reducing flows to the UK and Langeled nominations down 10 mcm/day this morning with no fresh maintenance flagged. The UK system opened around 2 mcm/day short, with total exit nominations at 299.8 mcm/day and gas-for-power demand forecast to rise by 4 mcm/day in the day-ahead. UK LNG send-out slipped a further 2 mcm/day and no UK arrivals are scheduled over the coming weeks, with Atlantic basin cargoes continuing to favour continental terminals including Dunkirk, Gate, Mukran, Brunsbuttel and Eemshaven. EU aggregate storage stood at 30.82 per cent on 21 April, close to seven percentage points below the equivalent point last year, and the International Energy Agency has flagged that the Iran war has already removed roughly 120 bcm of LNG supply over 2026-2030, equivalent to approximately 15 per cent of projected global supply.
Electricity
UK baseload day-ahead settled at 102.00 £/MWh, an increase of 8.00 £/MWh on the previous session, with May-26 closing at 89.14 £/MWh and currently indicated near 90.50 £/MWh. UK wind generation is forecast to fall by around 55 per cent between 23 and 24 April, while German wind output is set to decline by roughly 10 per cent, tightening the prompt and lifting the front of the curve. Nuclear availability remains materially reduced, with unplanned outages continuing at Heysham 1-2 from 22 February and Heysham 2-7 from 21 March, planned work at Heysham 1-1 running to early August, and a further Torness-1 restriction from 23 April. Win-26 baseload settled at 94.00 £/MWh and is indicated closer to 98 £/MWh this morning, with Sum-27 at 73.87 £/MWh, Win-27 at 78.18 £/MWh and Cal-27 at 79.95 £/MWh. German front month power is pricing at 80.50 €/MWh this morning, up 1.25 €/MWh day on day, reflecting the same combination of weaker wind, firmer gas and higher oil and carbon.
Other Commodities
Brent front month settled at 105.07 $/bbl, up 3.10 per cent on the day and 5.71 per cent on the week, with early trading indicating a move closer to 106.60 $/bbl this morning as vessel seizures in the conflict zone continue, including the US seizing a vessel carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean. WTI closed at 95.85 $/bbl and ARA CIF coal Cal-27 gained 2.98 per cent to 117.26 $/tonne. Carbon allowances tracked the wider complex higher, with EUA Dec-26 settling at 74.85 €/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 at 48.47 £/tonne, both firm this morning. JKM M+1 closed at 16.39 $/MMBtu, up 1.64 per cent, while Henry Hub M+1 eased to 2.65 $/MMBtu, widening the trans-Atlantic spread and reinforcing the economics for US LNG cargoes flowing east into Europe and Asia. Sterling softened slightly, with GBP/EUR at 1.1551 and GBP/USD at 1.3467.