Energy Market Report - 24 July 2026
Escalating conflict risk in the Middle East sent Brent back above $100/bbl on Thursday, even as European gas and power prices drifted lower on cooler weather and comfortable summer supply. Carbon eased on both the EU and UK schemes, and sterling slipped after Washington announced a fresh round of trade tariffs.
Natural Gas
Prompt gas softened on Thursday as temperatures below seasonal norms across north-west and southern Europe limited cooling demand. NBP day-ahead settled at 149.25 p/therm, down 1.20 p/therm, with front-month August at 149.45 p/therm, while TTF spot eased around 1.4 per cent. Supply remains comfortable: Norwegian flows held near 320 mcm/day despite unplanned maintenance at Dvalin, and the UK exported around 51 mcm/day to the Continent via IUK and BBL. The concern sits further out - EU storage was just 54.4 per cent full on 21 July, some 11 percentage points below last year, and a heavily backwardated curve is discouraging injections, with contracts from Summer 27 onwards rising again even as the prompt fell. No LNG carrier has transited the Strait of Hormuz since 12 July, a risk the market is watching closely, though this morning the UK system opened 7 mcm/day long and prompt prices are trading sideways.
Electricity
UK power followed gas lower at the front, with day-ahead baseload settling £2.75 down at £129.75/MWh on Thursday. Solar output running above seasonal norms weighed on daytime prices, pulling day-ahead peak £14.42 lower to £113.50/MWh - beneath baseload - while August settled near £126/MWh and Winter 26 at £126.91/MWh. Further out the curve firmed, mirroring gas. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with Heysham 2-7, Hartlepool-1, Heysham 1-2 and both Sizewell B units offline and Torness-2 due to start a planned outage on 31 July, and easing wind is expected to lift gas-for-power demand by around 9 mcm/day at the day-ahead. Weekend baseload was offered near £78/MWh this morning on light demand and strong solar.
Other Commodities
Brent front-month surged $6.62 to $100.69/bbl on Thursday - a gain of around 7 per cent - after further attacks on shipping and reports, cited by brokers, that the US is weighing large-scale military strikes, and it is holding near $100/bbl this morning. Coal moved against the complex, API2 Cal 2027 easing $1.81 to $124.49/tonne. Carbon fell on both schemes, EUA Dec 26 down €2.75 at €83.88/tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 £1.88 lower at £61.33/tonne, leaving the UK contract at a discount of close to €12/tonne. In global gas, JKM front-month slipped to $21.82/MMBtu and Henry Hub spot held at $2.92/MMBtu. Sterling fell around half a cent to $1.3313 following the US tariff announcement, while GBP/EUR was steady at 1.1721.