Energy Market Report - 23 July 2026
Escalating hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz, with reported attacks on tankers and threats to regional energy infrastructure, drove European energy markets sharply higher on Wednesday. Gas and power posted gains of 4 to 5 per cent across the curve, while oil, coal and carbon all rallied in sympathy.
Natural Gas
Gas prices extended their advance on Wednesday as geopolitical risk met a tightening supply picture, and they are trading slightly higher again this morning. NBP front-month Aug-26 rose close to 5 per cent to settle at 151.43 p/therm, with day-ahead at 150.45 p/therm, while TTF Aug-26 closed at €62.54/MWh and THE just above €63/MWh in early trade today. Norwegian export nominations eased around 2 per cent to roughly 322.8 mcm/day after an unplanned outage at the Dvalin field, trimming deliveries into the UK to around 65 mcm/day, and EU storage sits at just 54.2 per cent full - some 10 percentage points behind last year - with injections slowing. Reports that QatarEnergy may extend its force majeure until mid-October added to concern over global LNG availability, with only one cargo currently scheduled into a UK terminal over the next fortnight. The UK system itself remains comfortable, exporting around 51 mcm/day to the Continent, but sentiment is dominated by the Middle East and the winter storage race.
Electricity
UK power followed gas higher, with day-ahead baseload settling at £132.50/MWh, up more than £7 on the day, and the Winter-26 season gaining almost 4 per cent to £127.39/MWh. The strength was continental in scope: German Cal-27 baseload climbed nearly €4/MWh to a three-year high, and French near-term contracts jumped double digits as around 5 GW of nuclear capacity remains curtailed by high temperatures and river levels. In Britain the picture is one of thinning supply into August, with several nuclear units offline including Heysham 2, Hartlepool and Sizewell B, wind output forecast below seasonal norms across northwest Europe next week as high pressure builds, and interconnector auction pricing implying the UK stays a net importer of power for the remainder of the year. Strong solar output continues to soften midday prices, but evening balancing was tight, with system prices spiking above £200/MWh on Wednesday evening.
Other Commodities
Oil led the wider commodity move, with Brent settling $3.06 higher at $94.07/bbl and WTI at $86.83/bbl - both up around 10 per cent on the week - as traders priced the risk of disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Coal firmed alongside, with API2 Cal-27 at $126.30/tonne. Carbon was conspicuously strong: EUAs for Dec-26 delivery rose 4.1 per cent to €86.63/tonne while UK ETS allowances added 3.1 per cent to £63.21/tonne, the UK scheme lagging slightly and widening its discount to the EU market. In global gas benchmarks, Asian JKM settled at $22.00/MMBtu, up more than 10 per cent on the week as buyers compete for Atlantic cargoes, while Henry Hub remained anchored near $2.92/MMBtu, underlining how regionally concentrated the current tightness is.