Energy Market Report - 17 August 2026
European energy markets opened the week firmer, with the expiry of the 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding this evening and deadlocked negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz keeping a geopolitical premium in prompt and forward prices. Gas and power both gained across the curve on Friday and have extended those moves this morning, while crude held its range and carbon eased on both the European and UK schemes.
Natural Gas
Gas prices are being set by the diplomatic calendar rather than the physical balance, which remains comfortable. NBP day-ahead settled at 150.75 p/therm on Friday, up 1.15 p/therm, and is currently offered near 153.01 p/therm, while TTF traded around €60.40 to €60.70/MWh. The UK system opened 15 mcm/day long this morning, with Norwegian total exit nominations at 322.9 mcm/day and flows to the UK up 2 mcm/day as stronger Langeled nominations offset weaker FLAGS deliveries. UKCS production rose 8.4 mcm/day to 90.3 mcm/day and LNG sendout is nominated at 8 mcm/day, unchanged from Friday. Against that comfortable prompt, the forward curve firmed sharply: Winter 26 settled at 151.36 p/therm, a weekly gain of around 10.7 per cent, and Q4-26 at 154.35 p/therm. The reason is inventory rather than flow. European storage is holding near 60 per cent, roughly 12 percentage points below the same point last year, with the Netherlands at 41 per cent and Germany at 49 per cent, and the extended outage at Norway's Ormen Lange field keeps 8.9 mcm/day offline through to February. LNG imports have averaged 315 mcm/day so far in August, below the equivalent 2025 period, and the latest EC46 weather run has trended cooler, projecting below-normal temperatures over the coming weeks.
Electricity
Power followed gas higher and brought its own supply problems. Friday's day-ahead settlement covered the weekend, so UK baseload printed at £124.30/MWh, down £21.20, with peak at £106.00/MWh, below baseload, as Sunday's midday blocks cleared near £115/MWh against close to £199/MWh through the evening. Monday has been far tighter, with the system price reaching £350/MWh in the 06:30 period as margins narrowed and wind fell to roughly 1.7 per cent of the generation mix, and solar is forecast to stay well below normal until Wednesday. That leaves CCGTs and the interconnectors carrying the load, with day demand at 28,480 MW. Nuclear availability is constrained on both sides of the Channel: Heysham 1 unit 1 comes off today for 15 days, Hartlepool 2 has been down since 7 August and Torness 1 follows on 21 August, while French unavailability is set to average 20.4 GW to month-end, with the 3 GW Chooz plant out until 29 August and heat-related curtailments at a yearly high of around 11.6 GW. Continental day-ahead baseload reflects that at €176.73/MWh in Germany, €177.35/MWh in France and €176.75/MWh in the Netherlands. Forward UK baseload gained modestly, with Winter 26 at £125.97/MWh, Q4-26 at £127.94/MWh and Cal-27 at £93.41/MWh.
Other Commodities
Crude held its recent range, with Brent front-month settling at $88.52/bbl on Friday, up $1.45, and trading within Friday's band this morning as the market awaits tonight's truce deadline; producers in the Middle East are reported to be moving barrels discreetly in a way that has capped rallies. Coal continued to drift, with API2 ARA CIF Cal-27 at $124.95/tonne, down $0.48. Carbon moved against the wider energy complex, with EUA Dec-26 falling €0.95 to €81.79/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 easing £0.13 to £58.89/tonne, leaving the UK allowance at a discount of roughly £11/tonne once converted at Friday's cross. In global gas, JKM firmed $0.33 to $21.41/MMBtu, holding a premium of about $1.55 over the northwest European LNG marker at $19.86/MMBtu, while Henry Hub spot rose $0.02 to $2.79/MMBtu, keeping the transatlantic arbitrage comfortably open. Sterling firmed on both crosses, ending Friday at 1.3530 against the dollar and 1.1703 against the euro.