Energy Market Report - 14 August 2026
A hardening US naval posture towards Iran and a fresh drone strike on a Saudi refinery kept a supply risk premium in energy markets through Thursday's session, even as European gas fundamentals improved. Gas and power moved in opposite directions on the day, with the prompt firm and the curve softer, while crude fell on a large US stock build before recovering in early trade.
Natural Gas
Prompt gas was pushed higher by supply disruption rather than demand. An unplanned outage at Norway's Kollsnes plant cut capacity to 145.2 mcm/day from 156.0 mcm/day, taking around 11 mcm/day out of the Northwest European balance, and NBP day-ahead settled 1.10 p higher at 149.60 p/therm. The forward curve moved the other way, with Winter-26 down 1.29 p at 149.15 p/therm and Q4-26 off 1.51 p at 151.94 p/therm, though Winter-26 still stands roughly a third above where it traded in mid-July. NBP held a 2.01 p/therm discount to TTF, which settled equivalent to 151.61 p/therm. The physical picture has improved this morning: Norwegian deliveries to the UK have risen to around 62 mcm/day on stronger Langeled and Vesterled nominations, UKCS production is up 3.5 mcm/day at 86.7 mcm/day, and demand is forecast 11.3 mcm/day lower at 136.7 mcm/day as temperatures fall towards 19°C. LNG sendout ran near 8 mcm/day on Thursday, with Isle of Grain nominations opening much lower today. European storage remains the constraint, at roughly 60 per cent full on 11 August and around 12 percentage points below last year, with Germany at 49 per cent and the Netherlands at 41 per cent.
Electricity
UK power eased on the prompt despite firmer gas, but forward contracts held up on continental supply problems. Day-ahead baseload settled £3.65 lower at £145.50/MWh, against €140.33/MWh in Germany and €145.74/MWh in France, while September sits at £122.48/MWh and Winter-26 at £124.77/MWh. Strong solar output dragged the system price down to £70.40/MWh in the late afternoon before an evening ramp carried it above £250/MWh for four consecutive half-hours and to £349.00/MWh late in the session, which is why the day-ahead peak settled £11.59 below baseload at £133.91/MWh. CCGTs remained the marginal plant throughout. French nuclear unavailability for next week has been revised up to an average of 20.9 GW on heat-related river cooling restrictions, and Romania has taken its last operating reactor at Cernavoda offline as record-low Danube flows threatened cooling. Domestically, Hartlepool 2 is already out and further Heysham and Torness outages begin over the coming ten days, tightening UK availability just as the heat eases.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 fell $1.91 to $87.07/bbl and WTI dropped 2.4 per cent to $81.25/bbl on softer demand signals and a large build in US crude stocks, though prices have recovered towards $88/bbl this morning on reports that Washington may make its naval blockade of Iran indefinite. Saudi crude is increasingly moving through Egypt's Mediterranean outlet rather than the Red Sea, with Sidi Kerir loadings reported to have more than doubled to about 2.3 million bbl/day. Coal drifted lower, with API2 ARA Cal-27 down $0.33 at $125.42/tonne. Carbon firmed on both schemes: EUA Dec-26 gained €0.75 to €82.74 per tonne while UK ETS Dec-26 rose to £59.02 per tonne, equivalent to €69.04, leaving UK allowances at a €13.70 discount to the EU market. In LNG, JKM M+1 slipped to $21.08/MMBtu and Henry Hub eased to $2.73/MMBtu, keeping the transatlantic arbitrage wide open. Sterling was marginally softer at $1.3485 and €1.1697, with no material effect on import costs.