Energy Market Report - 16 July 2026
Energy markets extended their rally on Wednesday as a Middle East risk premium, tighter LNG supply and weaker wind lifted gas, power and crude alike. Prices have eased at the very front this morning, but the broader forward curve remains firmly supported.
Natural Gas
Gas prices rose again on Wednesday, led higher by geopolitical risk and lower renewable output rather than by any deterioration in physical supply. The NBP day-ahead settled at 132.25 p/therm, up around 2.6 per cent, while the Dutch TTF day-ahead reached roughly €54.5/MWh, its highest level since late March, and forward contracts added between 10 and 12 per cent over the week. Norwegian supply stayed robust, with exports to the UK near 73 mcm/day, but LNG deliveries to Europe were nominated at just 70 mcm/day, about half the prior day, and EU storage remained around 52.6 per cent full, some 10.5 percentage points below this time last year. Traders pointed to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and reported attacks on Red Sea shipping, with Crown citing a direct exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, as the main sources of the risk premium. This morning the prompt has softened as the UK system opened around 15 mcm/day long on stronger domestic production.
Electricity
Power mirrored gas, with UK day-ahead baseload settling £9.00 higher at £133.00/MWh as wind generation fell by around a third and pushed the grid onto more expensive gas-fired plant. The forward curve firmed in step, with Winter-26 baseload near £115.60/MWh, supported by higher gas and steady carbon costs feeding through to clean spark spreads. Supply risks added to the tightness, with unplanned UK nuclear outages at Heysham 2 and Hartlepool and reduced French nuclear output as elevated river temperatures constrained reactor cooling. Continental spot prices were notably firmer on above-average temperatures, with German and French day-ahead baseload above €150/MWh. Into today, UK power is broadly flat as wind recovers and solar runs above normal.
Other Commodities
Crude held firm at elevated levels, with Brent settling at $84.95/bbl and WTI at $79.60/bbl, each little changed on the day but up around 8 to 9 per cent over the week on Middle East supply fears. Coal was steady, with API2 Cal-27 at $118.18/tonne. In carbon, the European EUA December-26 benchmark eased to €81.16/tonne while the UK ETS December-26 allowance firmed to £60.18/tonne, leaving the UK scheme trading roughly €10/tonne below its European counterpart in common-currency terms. Global gas benchmarks strengthened, with Asian JKM near $19.93/MMBtu against a soft Henry Hub around $2.80/MMBtu, while sterling gained about 1.1 per cent against the dollar to $1.3539 and held near €1.1752 against the euro.