Energy Market Report - 15 July 2026
Energy markets pushed higher again on Tuesday as an intensifying geopolitical risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz combined with hot weather and below-average storage to lift gas, power and carbon. Oil firmed on the same drivers, leaving the wider commodity complex on a broadly bullish footing.
Natural Gas
British and Continental gas prices extended their rally, driven chiefly by security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, where traders report that LNG shipping has slowed and loaded cargoes are waiting in the Gulf. NBP day-ahead settled just over 5 p/therm higher at 129.00 p/therm and Dutch TTF day-ahead reached nearly €53/MWh, its firmest in months, with the forward curve lifting alongside. Supply-side support came from lagging LNG arrivals, a maintenance outage at the US Freeport export plant and earlier Norwegian production issues, although Norwegian pipeline flows have since recovered to around 330 mcm/day. European storage, roughly 52 per cent full and filling more slowly than last year, continues to underpin prices as the winter refill progresses.
Electricity
UK power followed gas and carbon higher, with day-ahead baseload settling around £10/MWh stronger at £124.00/MWh as forecasts pointed to weakening wind and firm cooling demand raising the call on gas-fired generation. The forward curve also gained, with Q4-26 and Winter-26 baseload both firming as a tight nuclear picture reinforced the move: both Sizewell B units, Hartlepool 1 and a Heysham 1 unit are offline, and Heysham 2 faces a longer outage from 20 July. Continental margins are similarly stretched, with French nuclear output curbed by high river temperatures that limit reactor cooling, keeping interconnector-linked prices supported.
Other Commodities
Brent crude settled $1.43 higher at $84.73/bbl, with WTI tracking it, as the Hormuz risk premium spread across the energy complex despite comfortable physical oil balances. Coal was steady, with API2 Cal Y+1 little changed around $118/tonne, while carbon firmed in both schemes: the EUA December 2026 contract rose to €81.39/tonne and the UK Allowance to £58.26/tonne, leaving UKAs at around a €13/tonne discount to EUAs. Global gas benchmarks reflected the same tightness, with Asian JKM up to $19.34/MMBtu against a softer Henry Hub near $2.76/MMBtu, while sterling was marginally firmer at 1.1735 against the euro.