Energy Market Report - 14 April 2026
Gas and power prices opened softer on Tuesday morning as geopolitical risk premia eased slightly. Rising European temperatures are trimming heating demand and supporting storage injections, while an improving wind outlook for mid-week is weighing on near-curve contracts.
Natural Gas
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - activated on Monday afternoon - remains the dominant market risk, though early indications that non-Iranian shipping is being allowed through helped take some heat out of prices overnight. NBP prompt gas edged below 115p/therm this morning after settling at 117.40p/therm on Monday, while the TTF May-26 contract dropped around €2/MWh to near €45/MWh. European temperatures are rising, with the UK forecast roughly 5°C above seasonal average through to the weekend, and the combined effect has cut continental demand by around 380 GWh/day. TTF day-ahead fell approximately €1/MWh on the day.
Norwegian flows remain constrained at around 317 mcm/day as summer maintenance ramps up at Troll and Karstoe, with planned works on Vesterled beginning later this week set to reduce capacity further. Langeled deliveries to the UK have edged marginally higher but sit below last week's levels. UK LNG send-out is expected to hold flat at around 13 mcm/day, and the system opened roughly 20 mcm long this morning, pointing to comfortable near-term balancing. Losses further along the curve were broad-based: Win-26 fell 8.50p/therm to 111.00p/therm, Sum-27 dropped 4.75p/therm to 83.00p/therm, and Win-27 eased 4.25p/therm to 82.75p/therm. EU storage sites are firmly in injection mode, with flows reaching 177 mcm/day on 11 April and lifting inventories to roughly 29.88 bcm - around 29% of capacity.
Electricity
UK power opened with small losses on Tuesday, tracking gas lower in the absence of fresh geopolitical escalation. Wind generation had declined for two consecutive days to average just 4.9 GW on Monday - meeting only around 15% of GB demand - which pushed gas-fired output to 11.4 GW and roughly 34.5% of the supply mix. That heavy CCGT reliance amplified the feed-through from gas volatility into prompt and near-curve power prices.
The outlook is more encouraging. Wind generation is expected to peak well above seasonal norms tomorrow before gradually easing, which should drive gas-for-power demand down to around 15 mcm/day on the day-ahead. Solar is also improving alongside warmer temperatures, and interconnector imports held steady at around 14% of supply. On the curve, Win-26 baseload eased £1.75/MWh to £93.25/MWh, Sum-27 fell £2.00/MWh to £71.50/MWh, and Win-27 dropped £1.50/MWh to £76.00/MWh. French nuclear availability has slipped to around 43 GW - a six-month low - while several UK nuclear outages persist, including Heysham 1-1 on a 130-day planned outage and Torness-1 scheduled offline from 17 April for 27 days.
Other Commodities
Brent crude continued to trade near the $100/bbl mark, settling at $99.36/bbl on Monday - up $4.16 on the day and around $30/bbl above end-of-February levels. Oil prices remain elevated with major Gulf shipping routes still disrupted by the Hormuz blockade, though the US has indicated it will not impede vessels bound for non-Iranian ports. Coal was marginally firmer, with ARA CIF Cal-27 settling at $115.05/t. Carbon markets were mixed: the EUA Dec-26 contract eased slightly to €72.59/t, while UKA Dec-26 firmed to £43.60/t with morning indications around £45.06/t. Near-term carbon pricing continues to take direction from the gas and power complex, with residual load and auction dynamics the key short-term drivers.
Outlook
The Strait of Hormuz remains the key wildcard. Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran may resume in Islamabad this week, and any substantive progress could trigger a sharp unwind of the risk premia currently embedded across the commodity complex. On the supply side, Norwegian maintenance is intensifying through April and May - Vesterled capacity falls from 33.70 mcm/day to 20.70 mcm/day from 17 April, with a Langeled maintenance window following on 6 May. EU storage injections are running at a healthy pace, and warmer forecasts should support further builds, but the combination of thinning Norwegian flows, reduced French and UK nuclear availability, and an uncertain geopolitical backdrop keeps forward contracts well supported. The latest 46-day UK weather forecast signals warmer conditions from tomorrow but a notable reversal back towards seasonal norms by the end of the week, with cooler conditions potentially persisting through late April.