Energy Market Report - 13 April 2026
Energy markets opened sharply higher on Monday after US-Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend and the US announced a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, reversing Friday's risk-premium unwind and reigniting concerns over global crude and LNG supply routes.
Natural Gas
Friday's session had been soft as traders unwound geopolitical risk on optimism around the Pakistan talks. NBP day-ahead settled at 112.00p/therm, down 3.00p, while TTF day-ahead fell to around €44.05/MWh, weighed on by warmer-than-normal temperatures, steady Norwegian flows near 320 mcm/day and strengthening UK wind generation. UK demand was running well below the seasonal norm of approximately 196 mcm/day.
That relief proved short-lived. The collapse of talks and the subsequent Hormuz blockade announcement pushed NBP May-26 indicative offers up to around 120p/therm versus Friday's settlement of 109.69p/therm, while TTF May-26 spiked to €50/MWh before easing to around €48/MWh. Reports of US mine-clearing operations in the main shipping lane hint at a possible reopening, though the situation remains fluid. Today's UK gas balance is tight and requires storage withdrawals, although rising wind output should cut gas-for-power demand by around 16 mcm/day tomorrow. Norwegian maintenance season is also getting underway, with Vesterled outages planned from 17 April reducing capacity from 33.70 to 20.70 mcm/day for seven days - an additional supply constraint at a time when LNG routing from the Gulf is already under pressure. EU storage sits near 29%, adequate for the time of year but leaving limited comfort if disruption persists through the early injection season.
Electricity
UK day-ahead baseload settled at just £17.79/MWh on Friday, reflecting strong weekend wind and low demand, but the forward picture tells the real story. UK May-26 baseload settled at £86.77/MWh on Friday and was being offered near £95/MWh this morning, tracking the gas complex higher. Win-26 baseload moved from £90.66/MWh to indicative offers around £100/MWh. UK wind generation is forecast well above seasonal average this week, providing a partial offset to gas-driven cost pressure on thermal units. German renewables, by contrast, are set to underperform, keeping Continental power prices elevated and widening the UK-DE spread on the prompt. The IFA interconnector is expected to return to its full 2 GW capacity within a month - the first time since October - which should help cushion UK peak prices. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with Heysham 1-1 entering a 130-day planned outage from 8 April, Torness-1 on a 27-day outage from 17 April, and several unplanned outages across the fleet. System buy prices spiked to £215.32/MWh during early morning settlement periods on Sunday, underscoring how quickly the system tightens when wind drops or thermal margins narrow.
Other Commodities
Brent crude settled at $95.20/bbl on Friday but pushed back above $100/bbl in early Monday trading on the Hormuz headlines, reintroducing a meaningful supply risk premium. WTI followed a similar path, settling at $96.57/bbl before moving higher. Coal eased on Friday, with ARA CIF Cal-27 at $114.09/t, down around 2% on the day and more than 7% on the week. The German coal lobby continues to push for 6.7 GW of reserve coal-fired capacity to participate in the open market, arguing it would ease gas storage pressure and power prices, though the coalition agreement currently prevents this. Carbon was mixed - EUA Dec-26 settled at €72.84/t, down about 1% on the day but up nearly 3% on the week, while UKA Dec-26 edged higher to £43.39/t from £42.90/t.
Outlook
The Hormuz blockade dominates the near-term risk picture. Any prolonged restriction on transit would affect roughly a fifth of global LNG trade and a significant share of crude exports, with Qatari volumes from Ras Laffan particularly exposed. Norwegian maintenance beginning later this week adds supply-side tightness at an already sensitive moment. Temperatures across Europe are set to warm significantly from midweek - 4-5°C above seasonal norms in the UK, Germany and France - which should ease thermal demand, but geopolitical risk will continue to dictate direction. Hungary's recent election result may also prove significant for EU energy policy coordination, increasing the likelihood of stronger alignment on sanctions enforcement and gas storage policy.