Energy Market Report - 14 October 2026
Geopolitics continued to set the tone across energy markets on Tuesday, with attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and the loss of Persian Gulf LNG volumes pushing European gas to fresh highs for the year. UK power rose further still as wind and solar output fell away, while crude eased slightly before firming overnight and carbon paused after a strong week.
Natural Gas
Gas prices extended their advance on Tuesday as the market continued to price a sustained loss of Gulf LNG supply against a storage position well short of normal. Day-ahead NBP settled at 209.00 p/therm, up 8.50 p/therm, with TTF day-ahead around €87.50/MWh; the front-month NBP contract closed at 216.83 p/therm, up close to 15 per cent on the week, and Calendar 2027 at 170.22 p/therm. European storage stands at 73.94 per cent, or 835.59 TWh, which is 18.1 percentage points below the seasonal norm of 92 per cent, and that shortfall is the structural reason winter contracts are carrying a premium. Unplanned maintenance at Norway’s Kårstø facility has been extended, lifting total Norwegian capacity restrictions to 38.8 mcm/day and cutting UK-bound flows by around 7 mcm/day, with Langeled down to 61 mcm/day and Vesterled to 4 mcm/day. UKCS output held near 95 mcm/day and LNG sendout was steady at about 8 mcm/day across South Hook and Isle of Grain, while the arrivals schedule into Northwest Europe over the coming week is dominated by US cargoes, which is the main offset to the Qatari shortfall. Cooler weather is adding near-term support, though broker views differ on how long it lasts, and the UK system still opened 9 mcm/day long on Wednesday morning with prompt prices indicated below Tuesday’s close.
Electricity
Power outpaced gas as the generation stack tightened. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £152.57/MWh, a rise of £26.07 or more than 20 per cent, after wind output fell roughly 19 per cent and solar a further 47 per cent, lifting CCGT running by close to 158 per cent. Within-day pricing has been volatile: Tuesday’s system price fell as low as £0.09/MWh around midday before running to £209.91/MWh into the evening ramp, and Wednesday morning reached £263.00/MWh at 07:18 with the system short by roughly 1,660 MWh. Nuclear availability is a constraint, with around 1.3 GW fully offline at Heysham 1 and Heysham 2 and further derations at both sites and Hartlepool, while Nordic nuclear is reported at 51 per cent for Wednesday. Continental power is firmer than the UK on a like-for-like basis, with spot baseload at €179.00/MWh in Germany, €191.12/MWh in France and €193.10/MWh in the Netherlands, and the French November contract setting its highest level since assessments began in August on falling hydro stocks, so the UK has been exporting across interconnection. Along the curve, Nov-26 baseload closed at £173.79/MWh, Jan-27 at £184.97/MWh and Calendar 2027 at £135.89/MWh, a smaller proportionate move than gas.
Other Commodities
Crude gave back a little ground on Tuesday before firming overnight. Brent M+1 settled at $105.69/bbl, down 0.90 per cent after Monday’s near $2/bbl gain, and WTI at $94.14/bbl, up 0.43 per cent; Brent opened Wednesday around $106.35/bbl with attacks on shipping keeping supply concerns alive, tempered by confirmation that the United States helped facilitate the passage of more than 19 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Coal firmed, with API2 ARA Cal-27 at $144.53/tonne, up 1.17 per cent, and the 2028 and 2029 contracts at $134.20 and $133.88/tonne. Carbon paused after a strong run: EUA Dec-26 settled at €88.05/tonne, down 0.33 per cent from multi-month highs, while UK ETS Dec-26 closed at €78.05/tonne, equivalent to £65.92, down 0.83 per cent but up around 9.6 per cent on the week, leaving UKAs at a €10.00/tonne discount to EUAs ahead of the EU-UK summit on 20 November, where allowance-market linkage is expected to feature. In LNG benchmarks, JKM M+1 rose to $29.62/MMBtu against Northwest European LNG at $26.73/MMBtu, with Henry Hub front-month at $3.28/MMBtu. Sterling was stable at 1.1840 against the euro and 1.3252 against the dollar.