Energy Market Report - 13 October 2026
European energy markets extended a sustained rally into Monday’s close, with gas setting fresh yearly highs on colder forecasts, reduced Norwegian supply and a thinning LNG arrivals schedule. Power followed across the curve while crude, coal and carbon all firmed, leaving the whole complex pointing in one direction and a contested Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire doing little to temper sentiment.
Natural Gas
The direction was set by a genuine change in the fundamentals rather than by sentiment alone. Forecasts shifted colder, with north-west Europe now expected to dip briefly below seasonal norms this weekend and to hold only at normal next week, a noticeable break from the mild start to the winter. At the same time an unplanned process issue at Kårstø curtailed around 12.6 mcm/day into Wednesday, with the Gullfaks field also affected, although Gassco exit nominations still held at 334.1 mcm/day. LNG regasification into north-west Europe ran at circa 248 mcm/day, roughly 37 mcm/day below the month-to-date average, and UK sendout was steady at 8 mcm/day. NBP day-ahead settled £4.60 higher at 200.50 p/therm and November at 209.70 p/therm, with TTF day-ahead assessed around €84.50/MWh and the front month in the mid-€80s. European storage stood at 73.75 per cent as of 12 October, around nine per cent below the same point last year, and that shortfall has become the market’s central structural argument. Geopolitics is adding to it: an energy ceasefire announced by President Trump at the weekend was immediately undercut by Russian strikes on at least six Ukrainian energy facilities, including a Naftogaz site in the Kharkiv region.
Electricity
Power tracked gas higher rather than leading it. UK day-ahead baseload settled at £126.50/MWh for Monday delivery with peak at £128.32/MWh, and Monday’s half-hourly prices ranged from above £240/MWh on the morning ramp to the mid-£50s in the late afternoon as midday renewable output turned the system long. Along the curve, November baseload rose £5.77 to £168.27/MWh, December settled at £166.81/MWh and January at £179.49/MWh, with Calendar 2027 at £132.11/MWh. The generation mix leaves little margin for error: renewables were supplying close to 18.6 GW against demand of roughly 31.4 GW, CCGTs around 8.5 GW and nuclear only about 4 GW, with two Heysham units fully offline, two more derated and Hartlepool 1 on an unplanned outage since 8 October. There is no coal on the system. Wind is forecast to fall as much as 20 per cent below seasonal norms into next weekend as solar output declines, pointing to higher gas burn and sharper evening peaks. Continental markets offered no relief, with German, French and Dutch day-ahead baseload settling at €160.23, €169.44 and €164.05/MWh.
Other Commodities
Crude firmed on Monday before easing, Brent front-month settling $1.93 higher at $106.65/bbl and WTI at $93.74/bbl, with Brent trading back towards $105/bbl in Tuesday’s session as the prospect of additional Russian supply weighed against continuing Middle East escalation, including a further Houthi attack on Riyadh airport. Coal pushed higher, with API2 ARA Cal-27 at $142.86 per tonne, supported by assessments pointing to record global coal consumption this year as LNG shortfalls drive generators towards alternative fuels. Carbon rose in both schemes: EUA December 2026 settled at €88.34 per tonne at multi-month highs, while UK ETS December 2026 settled at £66.49 per tonne, a gain of just over four per cent in euro terms that narrowed the UKA discount to around €9.60 per tonne. In global gas benchmarks, JKM front-month stood at 28.50 $/MMBtu against north-west European LNG at 26.15 $/MMBtu and Henry Hub around 3.10 to 3.17 $/MMBtu, confirming Asia as the marginal buyer. Sterling eased to 1.3206 against the dollar while firming to 1.1837 against the euro.