Energy Market Report - 13 September 2026
European energy markets pushed to fresh multi-year highs on Monday as escalating disruption to Gulf energy infrastructure overwhelmed an otherwise comfortable near-term supply and demand picture. Gas led the move, power followed along the forward curve, and crude and carbon both firmed in sympathy.
Natural Gas
Prices rose because the market is pricing winter supply risk, not current weather. The shutdown of Saudi Arabia's 1,200 km East-West pipeline following drone strikes has removed roughly 4 million bpd of capacity designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and talks between Iran and Gulf states on reopening the waterway have been postponed indefinitely, with Qatari LNG exports still largely curtailed under force majeure. NBP day-ahead settled at 207.35 p/therm, up 8.55 p/therm, with TTF day-ahead assessed at €84.20/MWh, up €3.80, and the front of both curves moved in step: NBP Winter 26 gained 7.46 p/therm to 207.50 p/therm. Physical fundamentals were not the driver. Norwegian deliveries held at 293.1 mcm/day despite an unplanned reduction at Ormen Lange, UKCS output rose sharply to 91.50 mcm/day, LNG sendout is expected at 9 mcm/day today, and unseasonably mild weather is keeping heating demand minimal. The binding constraint is inventory: EU storage is 68.26 per cent full, some 17 percentage points below seasonal norms, and looks set to peak near 75 per cent against an 80 per cent November target, with UK sites lower still at 31.31 per cent.
Electricity
Forward power tracked gas higher while the prompt corrected lower after Monday's wind-driven spike. UK October baseload settled £5.00 firmer at £158.00/MWh and Winter 26 gained £5.27 to £166.22/MWh, with German October baseload jumping €9.90 to a record €173.65/MWh and French October up €12.75 to €158.25/MWh. Day-ahead moved the other way across the region, UK baseload clearing at £166.56/MWh with peak settling below baseload at £159.21/MWh, an inversion that reflects strong midday solar suppressing daytime hours while overnight and evening periods stayed expensive. Generation availability is the recurring theme: usable UK CCGT capacity for Q4 is forecast 1.7 GW lower year on year at 27.9 GW with Didcot's 710 MW unit out to 18 September, the UK nuclear fleet is carrying unplanned losses at Heysham 1 and Hartlepool alongside planned outages at Heysham 2 and Torness, and French nuclear unavailability was revised up 2.74 GW for the second half of the month with the 3 GW Chooz plant offline to 24 September on low cooling water. Low-pressure systems arriving from Thursday should lift UK wind towards 15 GW and German wind to 18 to 21 GW, easing prompt margins.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 settled $1.07 higher at $105.68/bbl and is trading around $107/bbl this morning after touching a four-month intraday high, with commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz reduced to single digits and a further vessel struck at the weekend. Coal firmed modestly, API2 ARA Cal-27 settling $0.60 higher at $135.41/tonne, while generation economics continue to favour coal heavily over gas: German clean dark spreads widened €6.88 to €54.00/MWh, a record €66.56/MWh premium to the clean spark. In carbon, EUA Dec 26 rose €2.47 to €87.99/tonne while UK ETS Dec 26 was near flat at £62.56/tonne, or €73.09/tonne equivalent, widening the UK allowance discount to roughly €14.90/tonne. In global LNG, October JKM rose 3.8 per cent to $29.74/MMBtu, sustaining Asian competition for Atlantic cargoes, while Henry Hub spot gained $0.15 to $2.85/MMBtu, leaving the transatlantic arbitrage comfortably open. Sterling was mixed and not a material driver, firming to 1.1683 against the euro and easing to 1.3495 against the dollar.