Energy Market Report - 12 September 2026
Wholesale energy markets ended last week with a modest correction but have reopened sharply higher after a weekend of escalation in the Middle East, where stalled talks on the Strait of Hormuz, a drone strike on Saudi Arabia's main crude export pipeline and a further attack on shipping have compounded an already fragile supply picture. Gas, power and crude are all trading above Friday's settlements this morning, while coal and carbon have stayed comparatively detached from the move.
Natural Gas
Gas prices softened on Friday on improving supply and a warmer outlook, only for the weekend's events to reverse the move. NBP day-ahead settled at 198.80 p/therm, down 6.45 p/therm, with TTF day-ahead assessed near €80.4/MWh, as Norwegian nominations climbed to 292.6 mcm/day and Northwest European temperatures turned mild, reaching 18°C to 23°C through Wednesday. The physical position remains comfortable this week, with the UK system opening 11 mcm/day long, UKCS output at 81.20 mcm/day and LNG sendout at 9 mcm/day led by South Hook, though Norwegian exit nominations have slipped to 288 mcm/day and an unplanned Ormen Lange outage is costing around 15 mcm/day. The curve is another matter. Winter 26 settled at 200.04 p/therm, roughly 32 per cent above where it stood a month ago, and is offered near 211 p/therm this morning, with the premium driven by Qatari force majeure that remains in place while Hormuz is impaired, by low inventories, with EU storage 68.04 per cent full and UK sites at just 31.31 per cent, and by the Dutch government's decision on Friday to cut its 1 November filling target by 10 percentage points to 64 per cent.
Electricity
Power is showing a sharp divergence between the prompt and the curve. Day-ahead prices across Northwest Europe cleared much higher for Monday delivery as a regional wind trough left load factors around 6 to 7 per cent in Germany and France, with UK baseload at £175.00/MWh and Germany at €226.05/MWh, up €32.05. Thin thermal availability amplified the move: the 710 MW Didcot CCGT outage runs to 18 September, a unit at Pembroke remains out, Hartlepool 2 began a planned outage today alongside existing outages at Heysham and Torness, and low river flows on the Meuse have extended the total outage at France's 3 GW Chooz plant to 25 September. Forward power tracked gas lower on Friday, with Q4 26 baseload down £3.84/MWh to £159.66/MWh, Winter 26 down £3.03/MWh to £160.95/MWh and Cal 27 at £122.10/MWh, though all have been marked higher this morning. With wind improving from tomorrow and stronger Atlantic systems arriving from Thursday, prompt pressure should ease through the week even as the winter contracts stay bid.
Other Commodities
Crude settled lower on Friday, with Brent M+1 at $104.61/bbl and WTI at $100.05/bbl, but both were up more than 8 per cent on the week and Brent has since traded at $107 to $108.50/bbl on the Saudi pipeline shutdown, which threatens a route carrying roughly 4 per cent of global petroleum supply while Hormuz remains effectively closed. Coal was steadier, with API2 ARA Cal 27 at $134.81/tonne, down $1.50 on the day and barely changed on the week, and high gas prices continue to keep clean dark spreads positive against negative clean spark spreads, favouring coal generation where units are available. Carbon has not joined the rally: EUA Dec 26 settled at €85.52/tonne, down €0.30, while UK ETS Dec 26 settled at £62.45/tonne, down £0.09, leaving the UK allowance at a discount of around €12.75/tonne to the European contract, though the UK scheme has outperformed on the week. In global gas, JKM M+1 closed at $27.89/MMBtu, up 10.92 per cent on the week with its premium to the TTF regasification equivalent widening to $1.23/MMBtu, while Henry Hub spot at $2.71/MMBtu remains entirely detached from the European and Asian picture. Sterling was marginally firmer at 1.1653 against the euro and 1.3518 against the dollar.