Energy Market Report - 11 September 2026
Escalating conflict around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has kept a substantial risk premium in European energy prices, driving gas and power to multi-year highs in Thursday's session before a milder, windier forecast brought some relief this morning. Crude gained heavily through the week and carbon was broadly flat, leaving supply disruption rather than demand as the defining feature across the complex.
Natural Gas
UK and continental gas extended a five-session rally on Thursday on a combination of tighter Norwegian supply and continued geopolitical risk, before easing this morning as the system opened long and wind forecasts improved. Day-ahead NBP settled at 205.25 p/therm and Winter 26 at 205.97 p/therm, with TTF day-ahead settling at €82.88/MWh and the month-ahead contract at €82.12/MWh, its highest close since December 2022. Norwegian pipeline deliveries to Europe fell around 1.5 per cent to 291.6 mcm/day, with flows to the UK down roughly 10 per cent to 36.8 mcm/day as an intensive maintenance programme holding around 30 mcm/day offline continues through the month, and Gassco has nominated total exits of 291.9 mcm/day for today. UK LNG send-out is nominated broadly flat at 8 mcm/day across Isle of Grain and South Hook. The storage picture remains the market's central worry, with EU stocks around 67.6 per cent full and the UK at just 31.3 per cent, well below seasonal norms, while October JKM at $28.72/MMBtu keeps Asian buyers competing hard for the same cargoes. This morning day-ahead gas is offered nearer 199.84 p/therm with the system some 19 mcm/day long.
Electricity
UK power followed gas higher on Thursday before falling sharply this morning as the latest forecast run brought stronger wind and a 10 mcm/day reduction in gas-for-power demand. Day-ahead baseload settled at £176.00/MWh, up £12.50, with day-ahead peak at £174.94/MWh, below baseload thanks to strong solar output, and renewables made up 58.7 per cent of the generation mix over the day. Prices swung from £6.54/MWh in the middle of Thursday afternoon to £219.00/MWh in the evening ramp, and cleared £225.28/MWh in this morning's breakfast peak before falling back to £136.00/MWh; day-ahead is now offered around £116 to £117/MWh. Nuclear availability is a continuing constraint, with roughly 1.9 GW fully offline across Heysham and Torness units, further unplanned derating elsewhere and Hartlepool 2 entering a full planned outage from 14 September. The forward curve has been far steadier than the prompt, with Winter 26 baseload settling at £163.99/MWh and holding that level this morning, and October 26 easing only £2.30 to £154.45/MWh, which suggests the market reads this as a weather move rather than a change in the underlying supply position.
Other Commodities
Crude was the standout mover of the week. Brent month-ahead settled at $107.63/bbl on Thursday, up $6.42 on the day and 11.8 per cent higher between Monday and Thursday after US strikes on Iranian tankers and the Houthi seizure of the Red Sea port of Mokha, though it has eased to around $104.61/bbl this morning with WTI at $100.05/bbl. API2 ARA coal for Calendar 2027 settled at $136.32/tonne and has slipped to around $134.83, with the 2028 and 2029 contracts near $125/tonne. Carbon was subdued in both schemes, with EUA Dec 26 settling at €85.82/tonne, up €0.25, and UK ETS Dec 26 at £62.54/tonne, up £0.93, leaving UK allowances roughly £11/tonne below their European equivalent. In global gas, JKM month-ahead firmed $0.76 to $28.72/MMBtu while Henry Hub spot eased to $2.76/MMBtu, a spread that continues to make US export economics compelling. Sterling was marginally weaker at 1.1639 against the euro and 1.3508 against the dollar, with neither move material to import costs.