Energy Market Report - 10 September 2026
European energy markets extended a sharp rally on Wednesday as the war's reach into Russian gas infrastructure widened and Gulf shipping risk persisted, lifting UK and continental gas to levels last seen in late 2022. Power followed gas higher, crude held above $100 a barrel, and carbon markets stayed conspicuously still.
Natural Gas
Gas prices rose for a fourth consecutive session on supply risk rather than weather, after Ukrainian forces struck two major gas condensate processing plants in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets region, an area responsible for around 80 per cent of Russian gas output and until this week beyond the range of such attacks. NBP day-ahead settled at 197.65 p/therm, up 8.40p, while TTF day-ahead was assessed at €79.98/MWh, a gain of roughly 4.7 per cent, and the Winter 26 contract closed at 198.06 p/therm before trading above 200p on Thursday morning. The fundamental backdrop offered nothing to arrest the move: EU storage stood at 67.1 per cent full on 7 September, some twelve percentage points below the same point last year, German inventories are at a record seasonal low, and temperatures across north-west Europe are running around 3°C below normal. Norwegian supply is recovering, with exit nominations at 296.3 mcm/day on Wednesday and 293.4 mcm/day this morning, though Karsto maintenance begins today and runs to 25 September. Qatari cargoes remain suspended under a force majeure now extended into November, and the near-term LNG schedule into north-west Europe is overwhelmingly Atlantic-sourced, with no Gulf volumes at all.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas higher, with day-ahead baseload settling at £163.50/MWh, up £9.05 or 5.9 per cent, and offered at £176.50/MWh this morning. The generation stack is unusually thin: three nuclear units are fully offline and two more are derated, with a further Hartlepool outage due on 14 September, which leaves gas-fired plant setting the price for more hours than is normal at this point in the year. Wind eased into Thursday and is forecast to fluctuate around seasonal norms over the coming week, while solar output through the middle of the day was strong enough to push day-ahead peak below baseload, an unusual inversion. Balancing prices reflected the tightness, ranging from below £70/MWh in the early hours of Wednesday to £267/MWh through the evening peak. Forward, Q4 26 baseload settled at £158.24/MWh and Winter 26 at £158.61/MWh, roughly double the equivalent level a year ago. Continental conditions are no easier, with French hydro reserves at their weakest for the time of year since 1997, limiting the support interconnectors can provide.
Other Commodities
Brent M+1 settled at $101.21/bbl, up $3.29 on the day, holding above $100 for a second session after the heaviest exchange of attacks on Gulf shipping since the conflict began six months ago, and easing only slightly on Thursday. Coal was near-static, with API2 ARA Cal 27 adding $0.75 to $135.05/tonne. Carbon was the notable laggard, with EUA Dec 26 up just €0.15 to €85.57/tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 up £0.69 to £61.61/tonne, leaving UKAs at a discount of roughly £11.9/tonne to EUAs and implying the market reads current energy strength as a supply shock rather than a demand-led lift in emissions. In global gas benchmarks, JKM M+1 printed $27.96/MMBtu, its strongest since December 2022, while Henry Hub spot eased to $2.81/MMBtu, leaving a trans-Atlantic spread that is wide but of limited practical use given how little uncommitted US volume is available. Sterling was quiet at 1.1642 against the euro and 1.3542 against the dollar.