A hardening of the rhetoric around Iran, combined with unplanned supply outages in Norway and a low-wind spell across Britain, drove wholesale gas and power prices sharply higher on Thursday, with gains of 6 to 8 per cent on the front contracts. Crude, coal and the global LNG benchmarks all firmed alongside, while carbon was broadly unmoved.
Natural Gas
Gas prices rose steeply on Thursday as a supply-side shock met a market with almost no spare storage. Unplanned outages at Norway’s Troll and Visund fields, removing a combined 24.5 mcm/day with uncertain duration, tightened near-term supply just as a Truth Social post from President Trump stating that the US “does not need a deal with Iran” reversed last week’s hopes of de-escalation. NBP day-ahead settled 25.40 pence higher at 232.40 p/therm, December 26 gained 14.61 pence to 230.65 p/therm, and TTF December 26 rose 6.47 per cent to €92.26/MWh. European storage stood at 71.25 per cent on 12 November, around 11 percentage points below last year and some 18 points below the five-year average, which leaves the market exposed to any further loss of supply. Conditions this morning are mixed: Norwegian shelf output has improved to 327.7 mcm/day with Troll pencilled in to return on 16 November, UK LNG sendout is strong at close to 60 mcm/day with five tankers inbound, but prices have firmed again on reports of another LNG vessel struck by a mine in the Middle East.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas higher on Thursday, with day-ahead baseload settling £5.99/MWh up at £183.00/MWh and December 26 jumping £14.64/MWh, or 8 per cent, to £196.84/MWh. The session was tight throughout, with wind contributing only 16.3 per cent of the generation stack against gas-fired plant at 53.3 per cent, and half-hourly system prices averaging £188.91/MWh with the evening peak block running above £240/MWh. Today has been materially easier on the prompt, with wind rising to 42.1 per cent of the mix and gas falling to 25.4 per cent, pushing day-ahead baseload offers down roughly £16/MWh even as gas firmed. Nuclear availability remains a constraint, with one Heysham 2 unit fully offline since September, three further units derated, and a 14-day Torness outage due to start on 27 November. Forward power remains elevated, with January 27 baseload at £205.01/MWh and a peak premium approaching £38/MWh, and forecasters point to a second colder spell with weaker wind next week before temperatures normalise around 22 November.
Other Commodities
Brent front-month settled $3.06 higher at $95.82/bbl after four oil tankers were reported struck in the Strait of Hormuz, though the gain is headline-led rather than balance-led given OPEC output has recovered close to pre-war levels. Coal followed, with API2 ARA Cal 27 up $4.58 to $130.76/tonne. In carbon, EU allowances for December 26 edged up €0.82 to €90.38/tonne while UK allowances slipped £0.32 to £66.94/tonne, widening the UK discount to roughly £8.60/tonne and leaving the UK scheme notably out of step with a day of sharp gas gains. The LNG benchmarks were the strongest movers in percentage terms, with JKM up 6.38 per cent to $30.50/MMBtu, North West European December 26 at $28.90/MMBtu, and Henry Hub December 26 at $3.34/MMBtu, now up over 13 per cent on the week. Sterling was little changed at $1.3227 and €1.1962, adding nothing to imported energy costs.