Wholesale energy markets diverged on Wednesday, with a well-supplied UK system driving prompt gas and power sharply lower while winter contracts rose on deepening Norwegian supply outages and a colder forecast. The wider commodity complex firmed modestly, with crude, coal and carbon all gaining ground, though oil has since softened on signs of de-escalation in the Middle East.
Natural Gas
Gas on the prompt fell because the UK system was comfortable rather than because the underlying picture improved, with stronger wind cutting generation demand and total system demand dropping 22.83 mcm/day to 229.37 mcm/day. NBP day-ahead settled 5.60 p/therm lower at 207.00 p/therm, placing it at a discount to TTF at the equivalent of roughly €86/MWh and to the German and Austrian hubs, a gap that reflects healthy UK LNG sendout of around 47 mcm/day from South Hook, Dragon and Isle of Grain rather than any softening on the Continent. The curve moved the other way, with December 2026 up 4.75 p/therm to 216.04 p/therm, as Gassco reported Troll curtailments deepening to 11.3 mcm/day and fresh unplanned maintenance at Asgard removing a further 6.5 mcm/day, cutting flows to the UK to around 110 mcm/day. Storage is the dominant forward concern: between 26 October and 9 November European withdrawals ran at close to ten times last year’s pace, widening the deficit to normal levels from 7.9 to 10.5 percentage points, and the latest forecasts show temperatures falling well below seasonal norms from tomorrow. A positive supply signal did emerge, with Europe expected to receive its first Qatari LNG cargo since April through a Polish terminal.
Electricity
Power tracked gas lower on the prompt but fell considerably further, with UK day-ahead baseload settling £44.37/MWh lower at £177.01/MWh and peak down £77.75/MWh to £183.01/MWh, as improved wind output displaced CCGT generation and eased system tightness. Intraday conditions were volatile despite the softer settlement, with half-hourly prices ranging from £145.50/MWh around midday to £307.13/MWh in the early afternoon, the spike arriving on only a modest system shortfall, which points to thin operating margins rather than a large balancing requirement. The forward curve firmed in line with gas, with December baseload up £8.15/MWh to £182.20/MWh, January up £8.10/MWh to £193.57/MWh and Q1 2027 up £6.89/MWh to £180.85/MWh. Nuclear availability remains a constraint into the winter, with one Heysham 2 unit fully offline since early September, a derating in place at Heysham 1, and a planned 14-day Torness outage beginning on 27 November. Continental support was limited, with interconnector contributions minimal through the session.
Other Commodities
Crude firmed into Wednesday’s close, with Brent front-month up $1.27/bbl to $92.76/bbl, though prices have eased this morning as OPEC output was reported to have recovered close to pre-war levels on the back of a 26 per cent jump in Saudi production. That recovery is capping gains despite continuing attacks on energy infrastructure, including a reported drone strike on Russia’s Baltic export hub at Ust-Luga and claimed Houthi strikes on pumping stations along the Saudi East-West crude pipeline. Coal rose $1.65/tonne to $126.18/tonne on the API2 ARA Cal 2027 contract. Carbon firmed on both schemes, with EUA December 2026 up €1.50 per tonne to €89.56 per tonne and UK ETS December 2026 up £1.07 per tonne to £67.26 per tonne, leaving the UK allowance at a discount of roughly £7.60 per tonne and adding to the cost of gas-fired generation across the curve. In global LNG, JKM front-month rose $0.54/MMBtu to $28.66/MMBtu while Henry Hub held at $3.00/MMBtu, and sterling softened to 1.1959 against the euro and 1.3280 against the dollar.