Energy Market Update - 12 November 2025
Front month gas and power opened higher on a colder shift next week, while mild weather and strong Norwegian and LNG supply keep the prompt subdued. Carbon firmed, oil steady.
European gas edged up at the front after overnight model runs extended next week’s cold spell. At the open NBP front month priced near 81.8 pence per therm, up about 0.7 pence day on day, with TTF front month around 31.35 €/MWh, up 0.20 €/MWh. Spot remained soft after recent warmth drove day ahead to multi-month lows. System data show the UK grid comfortably supplied this morning with demand about 211 mcm, UKCS near 95 mcm, Langeled close to 70 mcm and combined LNG send-out around 45 mcm, while IUK ran net export. A dense slate of Atlantic cargoes into North West Europe through 12 to 14 November underpins near-term supply. Aggregate EU storage sits a touch above 82 per cent following several days of net withdrawals. Upside risk persists from infrastructure attacks in Eastern Europe, but for now balances remain comfortable.
UK power followed gas higher on the curve while the prompt stayed range bound. UK day ahead baseload last settled near £68.6/MWh, with the December baseload contract around £81/MWh and Q1-26 near £84/MWh. Wind is forecast to trend around or a little below seasonal norms into early next week, lifting gas-for-power during lower renewable hours. Interconnector imports from the continent added margin cover. Several UK nuclear units remain in planned or short unplanned outages, although availability is expected to improve later in the month. Carbon strengthened, adding a small cost floor to the forward stack.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent traded near 65.2 dollars per barrel, roughly flat week on week, while API2 Cal-26 coal hovered just above 102 dollars per tonne. EUAs firmed to about 80.7 €/t and UK ETS to roughly £57/t. Sterling held around 1.136 against the euro. In UK corporate energy news, SSE outlined a £33 billion grid and renewables investment plan funded in part by a £2 billion share sale, highlighting continued pass-through of network capex to consumer bills. Southern Water raised £675 million across five and eight year bonds as it advances a large investment programme. Drax shares gained on expectations that legacy power sites could capture data-centre demand alongside new subsidy arrangements.