Energy Market Update - 11 November 2025
Gas slipped to a six week low as mid December turned warmer and supply stayed comfortable. Power eased in line as wind and temperature revisions reduced risk. LNG arrivals keep near-term cover strong.
Dutch TTF settled at €31.03/MWh, the lowest since 1 October. A 0.5 degree upward revision to EC46 for mid December reduced heating load expectations and pulled the curve down. UK NBP front month closed at 80.44p/therm, down 0.38p on the day. Supply remains solid. Norwegian pipeline exports are steady around recent highs and four LNG vessels are due at UK terminals over the coming week, keeping send-out elevated. US liquefaction is running near record rates and with Europe still pricing at a premium to North East Asia after freight, Atlantic cargoes continue to favour European hubs, limiting reliance on storage.
UK power tracked gas lower. Earlier support from cooler and wind-lighter runs faded as forecasts improved, easing prompt tightness. The near curve drifted with NBP while sparks were mixed where power moves did not fully match gas. Interconnectors from France, Belgium and the Netherlands remained available and nuclear output was broadly stable, leaving prompt pricing driven by day-to-day wind realisations.
Carbon was steady to slightly softer after the week’s policy-led swings, with recent highs attracting selling as competitiveness concerns re-emerged. Oil was little changed around the mid 60s dollars per barrel as balanced supply offset weak macro signals. Coal for 2026 delivery hovered in the low 100s dollars per tonne. Global LNG benchmarks stayed close to European hub equivalents, keeping Atlantic-Pacific arbitrage narrow and reinforcing comfort while US liquefaction runs remain high.