Energy Market Update - 11 December 2025
Gas and power eased despite brief intraday firmness. Warm weather and steady inflows kept balances comfortable, with only short pockets of tighter prompt pricing on wind dips.
NBP Day-ahead settled at 67.50 p/therm, with the UK system opening long as Norwegian receipts via Vesterled strengthened and LNG send-out stepped up versus the previous day. Total exit nominations were around 343 mcm per day. Front-month TTF and NBP traded lower on the day, reflecting unseasonably mild temperatures and continued fund selling. Several US cargoes are scheduled across North-West European terminals, reinforcing near-term supply cover.
Strong continental regas nominations, including higher flows at Montoir, offset lower wind-related demand uplift, leaving the prompt range-bound. Indicative front-month prints were near 26.6 to 26.8 €/MWh for TTF and about 70 p/therm for NBP in early trade.
UK Day-ahead baseload cleared at 68.79 £/MWh, with peaks higher, as wind eased during trading before recovering in later blocks. Forward baseload dipped across Q1 2026 and Summer 2026 in line with gas, while interconnectors provided margin cover and nuclear availability stayed broadly steady. Generation data show gas-fired output flexing to cover renewable variability, with a mixed wind outlook likely to keep the prompt reactive but the curve anchored to fuels.
Brent hovered near 62 $/bbl after a brief spike tied to a US seizure of a sanctioned tanker, then retraced as attention returned to macro and peace-talk headlines. EUAs sat around 82 €/t and UKAs mid-50s £/t, providing a light floor to winter power costs. API2 Cal-26 traded near 97 $/t. Asian LNG softened, with JKM slipping below 10 $/MMBtu, narrowing any trans-basin pull and keeping European cargo values close to hub parity.