Energy Market Update - 10 December 2025
Gas and power nudged higher. Cooler revisions, thin UK LNG send out and firm demand lifted near-curve gas. Power followed. Stocks remain comfortable. Oil softened. Carbon steadied. Volatility stayed intraday.
NBP front month held near 71 pence per therm in early trade, with TTF around €27/MWh. A small downward shift in continental temperature forecasts increased near-term demand risk, although readings remain above seasonal norms. Continental LNG nominations continued to rise, notably at Fos and Montoir, while UK regas activity lagged and kept the domestic balance tighter than Northwest Europe. That helped NBP retain a slightly firmer tone than TTF during the morning session. Spot indicators were broadly stable and forward strips recovered modestly after testing recent technical lows.
UK baseload tracked gas. Day-ahead eased into the high £50s per MWh as wind recovered late in the session, but the curve edged up with fuel. January baseload printed around the low £80s per MWh and the front-quarter near the mid £70s. Wind output remained dominant, averaging roughly 21 GW and supplying more than half of system demand, while CCGT generation hovered near 5 GW despite a small rise in total demand to about 38 GW. Liquidity across European power futures was lighter than last year, which is widening intraday ranges as traders manage risk.
Brent traded close to 62 dollars per barrel and WTI near 58, reflecting ample supply and headline-driven interest in peace proposals. EUA Dec-25 held around €83 per tonne, with UK ETS near £64 per tonne, keeping thermal costs elevated without adding fresh upside. ARA coal for Cal-26 hovered just below 100 dollars per tonne. LNG markers stayed aligned with hubs, with Northwest Europe near parity to TTF and Asia’s JKM maintaining a modest premium.