Energy Market Report – 10 February 2026
Gas and power markets extended losses into Tuesday morning as milder weather across north-west Europe continued to erode the winter risk premium. Carbon bounced from recent lows, while Brent crude firmed modestly amid renewed US–Iran uncertainty.
Prompt NBP fell sharply on Monday as forecast revisions pointed to temperatures running 3–4°C above seasonal norms across the UK and Continent this week. NBP day-ahead settled at 82.70p/therm, down 7.80p on the session, while the front-month contract eased to 78.95p/therm, down 6.21p. The UK gas system opened 10 mcm/day long on Tuesday, and gas-for-power demand is expected to drop a further 5 mcm/day day-ahead, reducing system tightness materially. LNG send-out rose to 114 mcm/day, supported by a pickup at Isle of Grain, with South Hook and Dragon both holding steady. Norwegian flows dipped slightly to 336.2 mcm/day after reductions at Langeled and Vesterled/Flags, though total nominations remain healthy. European storage withdrawals slowed markedly, with the draw rate falling to around 0.34 per cent per day from 0.63 per cent earlier in the week. EU sites stand at 36.71 per cent full, still roughly 12 percentage points below the same point last year. A brief cold spell forecast for the weekend should prevent a wholesale retreat in the prompt.
UK baseload day-ahead rose £2.00 to £89.50/MWh despite the broader gas sell-off, as CCGT generation ran at elevated levels – averaging around 17.6 GW on Monday, roughly 43 per cent of the GB power mix and overtaking wind as the largest generation source. Peak day-ahead jumped £5.68 to £96.83/MWh, reflecting tighter evening margins. Wind output is sitting near seasonal norms, with forecasts pointing to rising output into the weekend which should cap prompt upside. Curve power tracked gas lower, with the March baseload contract falling £2.53 to £80.41/MWh and Summer 26 dipping to £71.92/MWh. Nuclear availability remains constrained, with Hartlepool 1 and 2, Torness 2 and Heysham 2-7 all offline and further planned outages scheduled through March. Winter 26 baseload held broadly flat at £78.01/MWh, suggesting the market sees structural support from carbon and nuclear scarcity over the medium term.
Brent crude firmed $0.99 to $69.04/bbl as US–Iran negotiations remained inconclusive, with an overnight vessel seizure in the Indian Ocean adding to the cautious tone. Coal ARA CIF Cal 2027 eased marginally to $104.18/tonne. Carbon recovered from four-month lows, with EUA Dec 26 gaining €2.62 to €81.35/tonne and UKA Dec 26 adding £1.10 to £57.79/tonne, coinciding with the EU competitiveness summit in Antwerp. Sterling weakened slightly against the euro to 1.1493 while firming against the dollar to 1.3690.