Energy Market Update - 09 February 2026
European gas and power markets opened sharply lower on Monday as revised weather models shortened the expected cold snap later this week. Oil retreated on progress in US–Iran nuclear talks, while carbon extended recent losses amid speculation of an extended free-allowance phase-out.
Natural gas prices fell materially in early trading, with the NBP front month dropping around 7 p/th from Friday's close to trade near 78 p/th by mid-morning. TTF March slipped approximately €2.50/MWh to around €33/MWh. The move was driven by updated forecasts showing the cold push expected from 11–14 February will be shorter-lived, with temperatures returning above seasonal norms more quickly than previously indicated, easing near-term demand expectations and moderating the storage draw profile. Supply fundamentals remain broadly supportive: UK LNG send-out is running at around 111 mcm/day with fourteen cargoes due over the coming fortnight, and Norwegian pipeline flows to the Continent held steady at 336 mcm/day, though a Nyhamna processing outage is trimming Langeled nominations slightly until 18 February. Mid-range UK storage sites are withdrawing at approximately 17 mcm/day, and IUK exports to Belgium continue at 22 mcm/day. EU storage stands at 433 TWh, or just under 38 per cent full – low by seasonal standards and a key variable as the market weighs the remaining winter draw against summer injection needs. Further along the curve, Summer 26 gas fell 2.25 p/th to 72.50 and Winter 26 eased 1.50 to 76.75, while Summer 27 and Winter 27 held flat, supported by tight global LNG balances and lingering concern over liquefaction project timelines.
Power markets opened lower in lockstep with gas. The UK baseload front month traded near £80/MWh, down roughly £3.75 from Friday's settle, while the German equivalent fell around €3/MWh to approximately €91/MWh. Wind generation remained strong into the weekly close, but forecasts for the coming days show lower output across Europe, which is expected to increase reliance on gas-fired generation and lend support to near-dated products. Further-dated contracts saw notable weakness, with Summer 28 baseload falling £4.35 to £58.05 and Summer 29 down £4.70 to £60.30, pressured by EUA softness following reports of a possible extension to the free allowance phase-out. UK nuclear availability remains constrained, with Hartlepool 1 and 2, Torness 2, and several Heysham units offline. In contrast, Nordic power prices surged to post-2022 highs, with day-ahead reaching €158.53/MWh on Nord Pool amid a severe cold snap and wind output at roughly a third of normal levels.
In broader commodities, Brent crude retreated after the US and Iran reported progress in weekend nuclear talks, easing the geopolitical risk premium. Brent M+1 settled at $68.05/bbl on Friday, up $0.50 on the day but down nearly 4 per cent on the week, with Russian output falling for a second consecutive month to 9.28 million barrels per day – nearly 300,000 b/d below its OPEC+ allowance. Carbon prices eased further, with EUA Dec-26 settling at €78.73/tonne, down over 3 per cent on the week after hitting four-month lows, while UK ETS Dec-26 slipped £0.66 to £56.69/tonne. Coal firmed modestly, with API2 Cal-27 up $2.35 to $104.90/tonne, though gains were capped by weak near-term demand signals.