Energy Market Update - 07 January 2026
Gas and power were mixed. Prompt power eased on higher evening wind, while near-curve gas ticked up on cooler weather and a brief Norwegian hiccup. Supply remains comfortable with storage near sixty per cent and strong pipeline and LNG availability.
NBP day-ahead printed 75.72 p per therm. Front contracts firmed across the curve. The UK system opened long, helped by steady Langeled receipts and higher LNG send-out from Isle of Grain. Vesterled nominations dipped, but aggregate Norwegian exports held near 342 mcm per day. EU inventories sit just under sixty per cent, with withdrawals accelerating during the recent cold spell. TTF front-month edged higher after a short outage at Skarv, which has since returned. Near-term LNG supply looks solid, with multiple Atlantic cargoes scheduled into North-West Europe and Dragon receiving US volumes this week. Weather turns cooler late week before reverting to seasonal norms, which should limit follow-through unless offshore issues re-emerge.
UK day-ahead baseload cleared around £91 per MWh as wind recovered into the late blocks. October to summer strips nudged up with gas, though gains were measured. Wind is near normal today, expected to dip tomorrow, stay choppy next week, then rebuild from mid-January. Interconnectors provided margin cover, while nuclear availability was constrained by short-dated outages at Heysham and Torness. Curve pricing remains anchored to gas and carbon, with winter risk premia intact but capped by comfortable fuel supply.
Brent month-ahead traded near $60.70 per barrel. API2 Cal-27 was about $97 per tonne. EUAs strengthened to roughly €88 per tonne and UKAs to about £68 per tonne, lending a mild underpin to forward power. Sterling held near 1.154 against the euro. Overall, prices are range-bound. Wind swings and day-to-day Norwegian availability remain the key prompt drivers, with storage, LNG and carbon setting the floor for the curve.