Energy Market Update - 06 January 2026
Curve prices eased while prompt power firmed. Milder forecasts, a longer system and steady Norwegian and LNG supply outweighed geopolitics.
Gas traded lower along the curve as weather models shifted towards seasonal norms by the weekend. The UK system opened around 7 mcm long. Norwegian exits were indicated near 343 mcm per day, with about 107 mcm per day to the UK. UK LNG send-out was close to 122 mcm per day after a small day on day dip, with continental regas running strong. Day-ahead NBP printed 75.50 p per therm, down on the previous session, while near months also slipped. Storage withdrawals remain active after last week’s cold snap, with UK stocks near 60 per cent full across major sites.
Power followed fuels on the curve but stayed tight on the prompt. UK day-ahead baseload cleared at £102.48 per MWh as renewables eased through core hours before recovering late. February baseload traded around £80, with spring and summer down modestly. System balancing was volatile yesterday, with an evening buy price spike reflecting tight margins during the low-wind window. Interconnector support from the continent helped cover peak periods, while nuclear availability remains constrained by ongoing outages. Forecasts show temperatures moving back towards normal and wind improving into the weekend, which should soften the prompt if realised.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent settled near $61.76 per barrel, little changed given cross-currents from supply news and softer macro signals. Coal API2 Cal-27 hovered around $95.94 per tonne. Carbon remained supportive for the power curve, with EUA Dec-26 near €87 and UK ETS Dec-26 about £67. LNG markers stayed subdued, with JKM close to $9.3 per MMBtu and Henry Hub around $2.8 per MMBtu. Sterling traded near 1.1526 against the euro. Overall, colder weather and variable wind are lifting near term demand, but strong Norwegian exports and healthy LNG send out continue to cap upside. Curve moves remain measured, with policy noise secondary to weather and flows.