Energy Market Report - 07 July 2026
Wholesale gas and power reversed sharply higher in early trade on Tuesday after reports of an overnight attack on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz revived geopolitical risk, compounding an already tightening summer picture of building heat and falling wind. The wider commodity complex was mixed, with carbon firmer but crude and coal easing at Monday's settlement, which closed before the escalation.
Natural Gas
NBP and TTF had settled lower on Monday on thin summer trading and a flat curve, with NBP day-ahead at 104.40 p/therm, down 2.60 on the day, before jumping around 4 per cent in Tuesday morning dealing as the Hormuz attack - reportedly involving a Qatari LNG carrier - lifted the risk premium. Supply remains comfortable: Gassco exit nominations rose to 332.6 mcm/day, UK Langeled flows firmed by close to 2 mcm/day, and LNG sendout held near 8 mcm/day against a full, largely US-sourced arrivals schedule into north-west Europe. The pressure is on the demand side, with gas-for-power burn forecast up around 14 mcm/day to roughly 49 mcm/day on low wind and heat, alongside heavy UK exports to the Continent via the IUK and BBL interconnectors. UK storage stays low for the season, with Rough near empty, while EU stocks have edged just above 50 per cent but remain behind last year's refill pace.
Electricity
UK baseload firmed with gas. Day-ahead settled at £98.25/MWh on Monday and the near curve added around 2 to 3 per cent on Tuesday morning. Wind is the swing factor, forecast down roughly 30 per cent day-on-day to near 6.8 GW and forcing additional gas-for-power running, while several UK nuclear units, including both Sizewell B reactors and an unplanned outage at Hartlepool, remain offline. On the Continent, the heatwave is dragging river levels lower and threatening cooling-related cuts to France's nuclear fleet, keeping regional prices firm across France, Germany and the Netherlands. Wind is expected to recover towards seasonal norms by the weekend, which would ease prompt pressure if it materialises.
Other Commodities
Crude eased at Monday's close, with Brent front-month at $71.99/bbl and WTI at $68.55/bbl, both softer on the day and week on comfortable supply, though that settlement predates the Hormuz escalation and skews to the upside. Coal held firmer on the week despite a softer session, with ARA CIF Cal-27 at $109.90/tonne. Carbon firmed across both schemes: EUA Dec-26 rose to €81.79/tonne and UK ETS Dec-26 to £57.79/tonne, with the UK contract gaining faster and narrowing its discount to the EUA. In global LNG, the Japan-Korea Marker eased to $16.07/MMBtu and Henry Hub to $3.29/MMBtu. Sterling firmed modestly, at 1.1691 against the euro and 1.3390 against the dollar.