Energy Market Update - 05 December 2025
Gas and power drifted lower as warmer forecasts, improving Norwegian flows and a busy LNG slate outweighed a brief UK system shortness. Curves softened. Prompt volatility stayed contained.
Natural gas traded lower across hubs. NBP Jan 26 dipped below 70p/therm intraday before stabilising near 70.2p/therm, with Summer 26 around 64.6p/therm. TTF front month was indicated near €27.8/MWh and front season around €26.3/MWh. UK linepack opened short by about 7 mcm on cooler weather, but temperatures are forecast to rise 5 to 6 degrees above seasonal norms from tomorrow, cutting demand. Troll and Visund issues were resolved, adding roughly 22 mcm per day and lifting Norwegian nominations. EU storage sits in the low eighties per cent. LNG supply remains supportive, with multiple US cargoes into UK and continental terminals through 9 December. Policy risk persists, with the EU’s 2027 Russian gas phase-out nearing sign-off and a faster timeline mooted for LNG relative to pipelines.
Power followed gas. UK spot baseload printed near £77/MWh. Forward prices eased, with UK Jan 26 around £79/MWh and Q1 26 near £75/MWh, reflecting softer fuel and improving renewable expectations. Wind output is set to be choppier next week, with several days above seasonal norms that could lean on day-ahead prices. Recent gains in wind already cut CCGT shares and helped cap near-term prices, while interconnector flows provided margin cover. A £28 billion grid upgrade plan was outlined, expected to lower costs in the long run, though near-term consumer charges may rise to fund delivery.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent traded around $63/bbl and WTI near $60/bbl. Coal Cal 26 hovered close to $99 per tonne, with 2027 and 2028 higher. Carbon stayed firm, with EUA Dec 25 near €82/t and UK ETS Dec 25 close to €65/t. Currency moves were marginal. Overall, the broader complex offered only a light underpin to power while gas set direction.