Energy Market Update - 04 December 2025
Gas eased on a warmer outlook for next week and steady supply. Power was softer at the prompt. UK carbon rose, narrowing the UKA - EUA spread. Storage levels remain comfortable and wind is supportive.
NBP Day-ahead settled at 72.50 p/therm. The UK system opened about 10 mcm long on stable flows. Norwegian nominations were near 323 mcm/day, with Langeled around 74 mcm/day and Vesterled 4 mcm/day. LNG send-out rose to roughly 84 mcm/day. Aggregate EU storage was last reported near 74 per cent. Forecasts show a brief dip tomorrow then temperatures more than 3°C above average next week, which should trim heating demand and cap near-curve rallies.
Day-ahead baseload cleared at £83.54/MWh and peak at £89.95/MWh. Wind output is healthy this week around 12 GW and is forecast 10 to 20 per cent above seasonal norms next week at about 14.4 GW, limiting CCGT burn in high-wind hours. Interconnectors continue to provide margin cover and nuclear availability is broadly steady. Curve prices were little changed, with Q1 holding a small premium over summer strips.
UKAs gained £0.43/tCO2 on Wednesday, narrowing the EUA - UKA spread by about £1 versus Monday. EUAs were broadly flat near €81.8/t. Brent traded around $62.7/bbl and API2 Cal-26 near $100/t. GBP/EUR held near 1.141. The policy backdrop remains in focus, with a provisional EU agreement to phase out Russian gas and LNG by late 2027 noted by traders, but without near-term market impact.