Energy Market Update - 03 September 2025
Gas and power were steady to slightly firmer as Norwegian maintenance and French nuclear strikes met strong storage and higher UK wind forecasts, keeping overall price moves contained.
European natural gas traded in a tight range. EU storage climbed to about 78% full, reinforcing confidence that winter targets will be met despite seasonal works on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Aggregate Norwegian exports remained constrained near 238–239 mcm/day, with UK-directed flows little changed and no unplanned outages reported. UK LNG send-out was stable around 8 mcm/day—mainly South Hook—with no near-term UK cargoes scheduled, while continental arrivals remain active. French industrial action added a new risk variable: union action trimmed roughly 1 GW of nuclear output on Tuesday and may also disrupt operations at the Dunkirk LNG terminal if extended. Front contracts reflected the muted backdrop: TTF front month settled at €31.77/MWh yesterday and is around €32 this morning; NBP front month closed at 78.01p/therm. Gas-for-power demand is mixed—day-ahead up to 27 mcm/day—yet the outlook turns softer as wind strengthens later in the week and into next.
UK power tracked gas but showed prompt volatility. Day-ahead baseload eased to about £79/MWh versus £83/MWh previously, helped by improved wind over the weekend. On the curve, the UK front-month baseload was broadly steady near £74/MWh, while the front season edged up to about £84/MWh. Near-term wind forecasts are robust: around 11.4 GW for the remainder of this week and roughly 12.1 GW next week, likely curbing gas-fired generation. Any extension of French strike action could tighten regional fundamentals in the near term—via reduced nuclear availability and potential LNG terminal impacts—but current guidance suggests limited immediate effect unless actions continue beyond mid-week.
Other commodities were mixed. Brent crude hovered near $69/bbl after recent US inventory draws, while European carbon prices firmed around €74/t. Key gas benchmarks were broadly stable: NBP spot near 78–79p/therm, TTF equivalent around $11/MMBtu, Henry Hub close to $3.00/MMBtu, and JKM near $11.25/MMBtu. With storage progressing, LNG inflows healthy on the Continent, and Norwegian works well flagged, markets remain range-bound; attention now turns to winter temperature outlooks and the trajectory of French industrial action.