Energy Market Update - 02 September 2025
Gas and power were mixed to slightly firmer. Norwegian maintenance and lower wind offered support, while robust storage and steady LNG limited upside.
Natural gas traded within a narrow range. Norwegian export nominations dipped during heavy maintenance, with total flows around 239 mcm/day today after falling to near 237 mcm/day, almost 100 mcm below last week’s levels. UK-directed receipts remained low and LNG sendout was steady at about 8 mcm/day (South Hook ~5 mcm/day; Isle of Grain boil-off; Dragon inactive). EU gas storage continued to build to roughly 77.5% full, keeping winter targets in sight. Geopolitics stayed in focus: weekend drone strikes in Ukraine and the prospect of a leaders’ meeting kept a modest risk premium, while Russia and China’s agreement to expand pipeline supply, including Power of Siberia 2, points to longer-term market shifts away from Europe. On prices, the TTF front month settled at €32.06/MWh (from €31.62) and was around €32 this morning; the NBP front month settled at 77.56p/therm (from 77.83p). Gas-for-power demand was forecast at 27 mcm/day for day-ahead (up 4), 14 mcm/day over the weekend (up 2) and 28 mcm/day week-ahead-next-week (down 2) amid changing wind conditions.
UK power tracked gas and fundamentals. Day-ahead baseload rebounded sharply to about £83/MWh from £49/MWh on lower wind output. Curve prices were steadier, with the UK front-month baseload around £74/MWh (from £73/MWh) and the front season near £83/MWh (from £82/MWh). Wind generation is forecast to average 5.2 GW over the next fortnight versus a 5.8 GW seasonal norm, implying intermittent support for CCGT burn. Nuclear output is expected to improve as planned maintenance winds down, though French labour action around nuclear sites introduces some regional risk. Interconnector flows continued to balance the system.
In other commodities, Brent crude traded near $68/bbl after inventory draws in the US and broader macro signals offset demand concerns. European carbon strengthened, with EUAs around €74/t and UKAs firmer, narrowing the EUA–UKA spread versus last week. Coal prices eased, with API2 Cal-26 near $103/tonne. Global gas benchmarks were steady: Henry Hub hovered at about $3.00/MMBtu, JKM at $11.22/MMBtu, and the TTF equivalent roughly $11.02/MMBtu.