Energy Market Report - 30 March 2026
Wholesale energy markets opened the week sharply higher as a significant weekend escalation in the Middle East conflict renewed supply-side risk across oil, gas and power.
Natural Gas
Gas prices reversed Friday's losses after Houthi forces reportedly launched their first missile strikes on Israel over the weekend, while US forces struck targets inside Iran causing power outages. On Friday, NBP day-ahead had settled at 134.00p/therm - down around 2.5% on the day - and TTF day-ahead at approximately €54.91/MWh, both benefiting from improved Norwegian flows and stronger wind output. Norwegian deliveries to the UK rose to 65.6 mcm/day during Friday's session, with total Norwegian exports climbing for a third consecutive day to 336.7 mcm/day. This morning, however, the picture has shifted materially. The NBP Apr-26 contract is indicated around 139-140p/therm, up 3-4p/therm from Friday's close, with TTF Apr-26 up roughly €1/MWh. The UK system opens around 9 mcm/day long, but gas-for-power demand on the day-ahead is forecast some 22 mcm/day higher as wind generation drops back from the weekend's record levels. Total Norwegian flows to the UK have risen to around 83 mcm/day on higher Langeled deliveries, though UK LNG send-out has eased slightly to 45 mcm/day following reduced nominations at South Hook. European storage stands at 28.44% as of 25 March, with net withdrawals slowing. Seasonal contracts have firmed this morning, with Sum-26 NBP near 139p/therm and Win-26 around 143-144p/therm. On the global LNG front, Cyclone Narelle has disrupted Chevron's Wheatstone facility in Western Australia, tightening the supply picture at a time when Qatari volumes remain absent from European supply due to the Iran conflict. JKM has firmed to $20.52/MMBtu, and European LNG imports for March month-to-date sit around 15.3 bcm - down roughly 12.5% year-on-year.
Electricity
UK power tracked gas lower into Friday's close, with day-ahead baseload settling at £58.10/MWh - well below Thursday's £113.50 - reflecting the weekend demand trough and a substantial step-up in wind output. Wind generation averaged 16.1 GW last week, nearly double the prior week's 8.6 GW, and reached approximately 23.9 GW on Saturday afternoon - a new all-time record. This morning, front-month baseload is mixed, with Apr-26 softening to around £96-99/MWh while seasonal contracts have edged higher alongside gas. On the Continent, wind generation has dropped sharply today, with German output down around 10 GWh/h and similar declines across the Netherlands and France. Belgium will take both of its nuclear stations offline on Wednesday for maintenance lasting through to November, removing around 2 GW of capacity and leaving the country reliant on imports through most of the summer - a development that could add tightness across north-west European interconnected markets. UK nuclear availability remains under pressure, with unplanned outages at Heysham continuing and a planned 137-day outage at Heysham 1-1 beginning on 1 April. Further along the curve, moves are modest, with Sum-27 broadly flat week-on-week and Cal-27 down only around 2%.
Other Commodities
Brent crude settled at $112.57/bbl on Friday - up $4.56 on the day - and has pushed past $116/bbl this morning, its highest level since mid-2022. WTI rose in tandem, settling near $99.64/bbl. Reported comments from President Trump about wanting to take control of Iranian oil, combined with a growing US military presence in the region and renewed Houthi involvement, have added a further layer of geopolitical premium to crude. Coal was broadly flat, with ARA CIF Cal-27 settling unchanged at $133.09/tonne. On carbon, EUA Dec-26 settled marginally higher at €71.67/tonne, up around 6% on the week, while UK ETS Dec-26 moved in the opposite direction, falling £0.95 to £37.05/tonne. The UKA-EUA spread remains wide, with near-term carbon pricing shaped more by auction dynamics and residual thermal load than fresh policy developments.
Outlook
The Middle East escalation is the dominant driver heading into this week. The Houthi engagement and risk to Strait of Hormuz transit have added a new dimension to the supply picture, compounding the loss of Qatari LNG and now Australian disruptions from Cyclone Narelle. Temperatures across Europe are running below seasonal average and are forecast to remain so through mid-week before warming into the weekend. Importantly, the latest 46-day forecast points to warmer-than-expected conditions through April and into early May, which - if it materialises - could soften demand further ahead and ease some of the supply-side pressure currently underpinning the curve. In the UK, the sharp drop-off in wind from the weekend's record highs will push gas-for-power demand higher in the near term, while Belgium's nuclear shutdown from Wednesday and ongoing UK nuclear constraints add structural tightness to the north-west European power balance. The energy secretary's decision to delay approval on 4 GW of offshore wind capacity is a further reminder of the UK's medium-term reliance on gas-fired generation.